Emac's Stock Watch | Fox Business
  • November 6, 2008 09:45 AM EST by Elizabeth MacDonald

    Dump General Motors From the Dow?

    Acting as an anvil on the neck of the Dow Jones Industrial Average is General Motors (GM), one of 30 corporate leaders thought to represent the U.S. economy.

    Citigroup (C) too. Time to dump both of them from the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

    Both are in desperate need of capital, and I expect both will have to  seek government help. I've told you plenty about Citi's rotten balance sheet. Time to turn to GM.

    For years GM has been under fire for mismanaging its business, for not losing money in years when the economy was firing on all cylinders--it lost $10.5 bn in 2005, when car sales were soaring higher.

    It has been criticized for now switching gears fast enough as gas prices rose to sell what car buyers wanted, fuel-efficient cars, as GM dithered dumping its unjustifiable gas hogs such as the Hummer brand, the stock has plunged to levels around the price of a gallon of gasoline or a gallon of milk, levels not seen since the ‘50s.

    GM's rapidly shriveling market capitalization at $3.2 bn is the tiniest in the Dow, with next in line Alcoa (AA). The aluminum manufacturer is valued at nearly three times as much, $9.4 bn.

    Ford has a bigger market value than GM, at $4.7 bn, but is not a Dow component. GM's status as a once iconic American brand is eroding as fast as that of Whirlpool, Eastman Kodak, Corning, and Sears.

    The stock market doesn't need a gauge of the auto industry, as it's not a news flash that car makers are getting a $25 bn loan from US taxpayers to retool their plants to make more fuel-efficient cars, a move they should have made decades ago.

    The Dow is a price-weighted average of 30 blue-chip stocks that are supposed to represent the largest and most widely held public companies in the country. The index of 30 has been the bellwether stock market index to watch since Oct. 1, 1928.

    It's been a long time since the Dow has been thought to be singularly "industrial," a quaint anachronism as many of the Dow's 30 components have little to do with manufacturing or heavy industry. The editors at the Wall Street Journal get to decide which stocks make up the Dow.

    It is time to dump GM from the Dow.

    Already, Kraft (KFT), whose former parent Altria Group (MO) was a Dow component until it was removed earlier this year, has replaced the disastrously managed American International Group (AIG) in September. Chevron (CVX) and Bank of America (BAC) replaced Altria Group and Honeywell (HON) earlier this year.

    The predominant issue in choosing the right replacement for GM is the fact that the index is price-weighted, so any one stock can really swing the Dow. 

    So that would rule out including the Federal Reserve, as Wall Street analyst Matthew Hougan suggests tongue in cheek, given that the Fed has been behaving more and more like a commercial bank, with massive lending to non-banks like General Electric (GE) and by buying up securities and debt instruments. General Electric is the only original member of the Dow--for now.

    So which stock should replace GM?

    Tech Stocks to Consider

    There are four tech stocks in the Dow: Hewlett-Packard (HPQ), IBM (IBM), Intel (INTC) and Microsoft (MSFT).

    Apple (AAPL) and Google (GOOG) have been talked about.  

    However, given Google's size and heft--its market cap is $107.6 bn--its stock price might be too much in terms of yanking around the Dow, as again, the index is price-weighted (see below).

    Apple, too, given that the volume of its shares traded tend to be thin, so earnings and other market news can whipsaw the stock and add to volatility. Perhaps to be considered, too, is the fact that its brand is closely identified with founder Steve Jobs, now said to be battling a rare form of pancreatic cancer.

    Telecom and communications equipment giant Cisco Systems (CSCO) would be a strong tech contender. It's got a $102.6 bn market cap, strong sales, and fairly conservative management given its history of earnings forecasts. Oracle (ORCL) with a market cap of $91.9 bn could also be considered.

    A Food Retailer to Consider

    What about PepsiCo (PEP), joining Dow members Coca-Cola (KO) and McDonald's (MCD) as a food retailer? With a market cap of $88.5 bn, the owner of Frito Lay and Gatorade as well as the soda Pepsi has been delivering steady sales growth.

    Other Ideas

    Hougan has suggested Philip Morris (PM), with a $90.3 bn market cap, ConocoPhillips (COP), with $79.7 bn, and Schlumberger (SLB) $60 bn. Also he says what ought to be taken into consideration is how various sectors are represented in the Dow versus the S&P 500.

    Sector Weight Number of Components S&P 500 Weight Difference
    Industrials 20.94% 7 11.39% 9.55%
    Information Technology 15.45% 4 15.94% -0.49%
    Energy 11.66% 2 13.14% -1.48%
    Consumer Staples 13.92% 2 12.29% 1.63%
    Financials 9.27 5 15.00% -5.73%
    Consumer Discretionary 9.96% 3 8.90% 1.06%
    Health Care 8.83% 3 13.02% -4.19%
    Materials 5.36% 2 3.65% 2.21%
    Telecommunications 4.62% 2 3.11% 1.51%
    Utilities 0% 0 3.56% -3.56%
          *IndexArb and S&P  

     Choosing the Right Replacement is Key

    The DJIA is price-weighted, meaning that a stock's weighting in the index is based on its price, regardless of how many shares outstanding the company has. Despite its name, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the index is not really a straightforward, actual average arrived at by adding up its stock prices and dividing by 30.

    That's because of things like stock splits. Say a Dow company has just 100 shares of stock and its stock trades at $100.

    However, the company's executives, who should always worry about their capital base, figure that there will be more investors plowing into their stock if the shares were trading at $50. So they do a stock split.

    One hundred shares of stock at $100 would deliver a market cap of $10,000. A stock split would mean 200 shares of stock at $50-same market cap of $10,000-but now investors have more shares and company executives can breathe easier because their equity base is a bit more flexible.

    However, the change in the stock price due to the split would bring down the value of DJIA, even though there is no fundamental change in the stock. 

    So to take into account the effect of price changes from stock splits, the Journal editors calculate the DJIA by using a Dow divisor.

    To arrive at the value of the index, the component prices are added up and then divided by a divisor, a number that changes whenever one of the Dow stocks has a dividend or a stock split.

BILL

DUMP GM AND GMAC________________

November 6, 2008 at 8:01 pm

B\\

Do not buy GMC or Ford show these rip offs whave have had it,

November 6, 2008 at 8:03 pm

vera

Do away with Gm do not use my money to bial out these fools.

November 6, 2008 at 8:07 pm

vera

Get Rid Of the U hauls on the Dow GM must go

November 6, 2008 at 8:09 pm

Frank Blangeard

Saturn is a division of GM. I own a 1994 Saturn SC2 with more than 200,000 miles on it. It gets over 30 mpg highway and it runs great. Aside from normal replacements like brake shoes it has needed very few repairs. If people wanted to buy an affordable and fuel efficient car made in the U.S.A. the Saturn has been around for a long time.

November 6, 2008 at 8:40 pm

naomi

I drive a Ford and have owned 2 others. People who ride in it are surprised it's a Ford - they really like it. But I'm also at that age where my car is not my image any longer. Used to drive a mercedes, toyota, saab, mitsubishi, ex had a DeLorian, Lambhorgini, and more. They're OK when you need that little extra whatever it is. But a ride's a ride and unless you live in some villa out there where you get to do the zoom zoom zoom commercial every day, you're sitting in traffic with the rest of us, going zero to ten mph, for minutes or hours. And those little foreign jobs start digging into my back, my butt gets numb.... Think I'll stick with these Fords. They're cheap enough to trade out every 2 or 3 years (keep that new car smell), comfortable, create US jobs and keep the US industrial complex going. Why does no one brainstorm about enhancing the auto industrial complex into producing say solar panels at such a volume as to make them really cheap to install all over America? We can re-tool these facilities and retrain the labor...they've got the massive distributed infrastructure already available. Just trying to think of turning lemons into lemonade with all of this--but perhaps the right set of eyes will see this and can run with it. Cheers.

November 6, 2008 at 10:08 pm

Joe McFarley

For all of you who buy imported cars, what do you do to deserve it? I am not against buying imported cars if they are better quality, but we must to earn those imports. The next obvious question is what do we (America) do to deserve all the imported products we buy from abroad? While an individual might do a lot to earn their products from abroad, we as a society have not replaced our manufacturing with wealth creating industries. We have printed and borrowed money, and then used that money to buy imported goods. If you go to Japan, you will notice that almost every car on the road is Japanese. Same in Korea. All the electronics are Japanese. Same in Korea. In fact, they don't need us! We do nothing to improve the lives of Asians. They have all the expertise they need to make their lives great. They produce their own wealth. We print money and buy it. The failure of the big three is not primarily due to mismanagement. It due to our collective belief that we can afford foreign engineered and foreign manufactured products without doing anything in return. The monetary policy of the Federal Reserve, and foreigners' overconfidence in the value of the dollar have gotten us to this point. When foreigners lose faith in the dollar, we will need to produce a lot more of our wealth domestically and sell it overseas to acquire the things we want and need from abroad. But we will have few factories, and little expertise in the industries we lost. It will then take decades to put ourselves back on a solid wealth-producing economic track. We have consumed too much and produced too little. The failure of the US auto industry is a failure of America. Just like the textile industry, the electronics industry, the steel industry, etc before it. Get ready for some tough times. This has been DECADES in the making.

November 6, 2008 at 10:17 pm

sidney pecora

WOW.... I cannot belive that this country's ideals have been so manipulated!!!From the lawyers who sue for the smallest non responsible actions from people who do not want to be held accoutnable for slipping in a store to someone who collects disability for a fake hurt back... The Problem is that no one wants to be productive anymore..U just want to sit on your ass and collect dividends and BUY investment properties to make money..We were founded on creativity,whether its with your hands or with your minds..CREATE something....ALl the jobs are being shopped out for the lowest wage no the best QUALITY.. Thats the differnce..PRIDE,HONOR,RESPECT, u must be taught these in a decent moral household from your mother and father and that also is not a number one agenda in AMERICA anymore.. I am very busy in my buisness and growing every month WHY??? Because i work hard and i do the best work that i can possibly create for the consumer at my buisness.. I would certainly not give money to a thief that has just ripped me off and thats what the goverment has done..They are going to strech our money so thin that we will have a dollar that is not worth anything in three years. tops.. It does not take a rocket scientist to see the writing on the wall people..TAXATION WITHOUT REPRESENTAION IS WHAT IS GOING ON NOW..PERIOD.

November 7, 2008 at 12:25 am

Emil

Americans that buy Japanese cars are "economic traitors". They are sending their hard earned dollars to Japan, along with hundreds of thousands of good-paying jobs. Jobs that their children, or their neighbor's children, could aspire to. This includes not only UAW jobs, but also engineering, technical, and managerial salaried jobs. If we keep exporting our future we will become a third world nation within one generation. Regarding quality and reliability issues - please read the latest JD Powers Quality rankings and you will see that Ford and GM have essentially closed the "percieved quality gap" with the Japanese. The propaganda that "imports are simply better quality" has been the mantra of anti-American leftists since the 1970's. Regarding fuel efficiency - please be aware that General Motors has more models tthat get above 30 mpg than any other manufacturer (including Honda and Toyota). Finally, the "legacy costs" (pensions, and health care) that America's Big 3 are saddled with were widely hailed at the time the contracts began to evolve, as "enlightened social contracts between corporations and the working man". They were widely considered models of enlightened management. These items, coupled with broad support by the Japanese government for their export auto indusrty, trade barriers to American vehicles, government paid health care, and a habit of keeping the Yen artificially low, all contributed to the rise of Japanese cars on a very "unlevel playing field". All of this coupled with some bad decisions by the Big 3, and the support of "American economic traitors", have all led to the near disastrous state of the once great American Auto Industry.

November 7, 2008 at 2:17 am

Jeff

I believe that this would be a good move to remove GM from the DOW. How many times do you bail out an industry? Pelosi, How many brick walls need to be made to run into before it has to end. A note to the UA unions and the big three, A quality product, produced reasonably would sale like Hot cakes. I am an American and will buy American if I can buy a quality product without compromise. Currently quality and price equates to a foreign made product. I am not cold and do not want to see the lay offs but to bail out companies with Executive paid figures annually most people would not see in a lifetime. These Executives were paid to lead these companies into the future to excel. We are a democratic society the government should not be a lifeboat for an executive's greed, incompetencies or whatever the case maybe.

November 7, 2008 at 11:27 am

Chad M.

hmm, I wonder if all the retired auto workers are thinking they did a smart thing by letting the UAW force GM to pay their retirement out of future earnings rather then letting the individual auto workers invest for their own retirement. The only solution that will avoid eliminating Ford and GM is to cut loose the massive pensions they are forced to pay out. Everybody saw this scenerio coming a long time ago and it's going to happen with Social Security one day also. Americans sold their soul in the name of security to avoid responsibilty for their own well being and now all those promises have failed as expected.

November 7, 2008 at 12:47 pm

Jean in phx

The UAW has sucked the life out of GM, Ford and Chrysler. How do they compete in the same price class as Honda and Toyota? By cutting corners and quality to offset their labor wages, pension and healthcare plans that they were blackmailed into providing. Would you pay more for the exact same quality vehicle? No, you wouldn't. Americans are only looking out for themselves and will by what's cheaper, and not pay more because it's American. Now Schumer and his fellow liberals want to do away with the secret ballots for union voters. Why? To make unions stronger so they can suck the life out of every other company. Who would vote against the union when their fellower workers will know how they voted? Open voting will bring about the peer pressure the unions need. They won't be happy until they drive every company out of business. The only other solution is to lock the borders and end outside competition.

November 7, 2008 at 1:58 pm

Doug Lewis

Since GM builds and makes the parts for US military vehicles (humvees for example) the need to keep them from collapsing may be affected by security needs. I seem to recall years back when Chrysler was in a downspin one of the factors to help them was that they made military engines for tanks. We should not get into a situation where we have to buy our national defense vehicles from a foriegn country.

November 7, 2008 at 2:00 pm

Reid

Personally, I don't care what happens to the US auto makers. Why? They have been big babies through the rought times and frankly. Every time the government said to "Beef up gas mileage" All we ever heard from these people is,"We can't do that, it costs too much". BULL. We have the technology and had they just done what they should have, we again could have been a world leader and been getting off our oil addiction quicker and so forth. SO if they have mismanaged their businesses, then too bad. Sink or swim.

November 7, 2008 at 3:00 pm

Brad Drell

Well, if GM made decent cars, people would buy them. All they seem to focus on its trucks. My Dad has always owned GM cars, and they've always had problems. That's why I buy Toyota made in California and Japan. The company and its management should go down, just like the unions that bled them dry. If their cars are now better rated by JD Power or whoever, well, that's a little too late.

November 7, 2008 at 6:12 pm

Lisa W

Listen. The American Auto Industry spends millions lobbying CA and US Govt's to undo fuel emission standards legislation. They are the reason our air quality sucks in CA. I wish they would let them go under. They sold out America when they moved jobs overseas under Nafta. Get rid of Nafta and they will change their lousy tune.

November 7, 2008 at 9:06 pm

Lisa W

I too would buy an "American" car if it ran well and saved me on gas. QUALITY, not OUT OF TOUCH CEO FAT CATS. Eventually they are going to figure out they need us "consumers." Aren't we sick and tired of that label anyway?!

November 7, 2008 at 9:10 pm

RFHarris

This to me is not so much about GM and bailouts, enough has already been said (and justly) about those situations. It is about how Wall Street tries to dress up what is essentially a rotten situation in an attempt to salvage themselves and the financial adviser/consultant community. I got out of the stock market some time ago. Thank God! I have been suspicious about corruption on Wall Street for a long time and I don't think I am alone. Especially since the revelations of the past few months. I don't know if I would ever invest in Wall Street again. It is proposals such as dropping GM from the Dow that really settle the issue for me. As in the past, Wall Street decides that if a company is not looking good (or supposedly is not with the times) they start gimmicking up the DOW by replacing it with an "in favor stock". Of course this makes the Dow Jones Industrial average look better and hides the extent of the problems we are facing, which makes it easier for Wall Street and financial advisers to lull smaller and less informed investors into the market.

November 7, 2008 at 10:26 pm

bobmac

Liz,you make the most sense of anyone on any business show on a daily basis.

November 8, 2008 at 1:20 pm

Michelle

I'm the first one to believe in most of what you all say about not wanting to bailout a mismanaged corporation(s), but we all need to put those types of emotions aside. Unfortunately, for the American tax payer, it is essential that the big 3 DO NOT go under. The consequences we will face if this industry no longer exists, will be a far far greater burden on the tax payers than any bailout would cost. Think about the unemployment rate which will directly effect the 3 companies and the indirect unemployment rate (suppliers), we are already at a 25 year high with unemployment at 6.5%. The crash of this industry may leave us with a rate that could exceed 15%. We, as tax payers will be paying for this industry's demaise one way or another. I say we need to look at this from an objective business solution, which costs tax payers less, even if that means these companies get an unearned bailout. The future crisis that will exist if we don't keep valuable resources in the USA, will be incomprehensible. So let's look at this as a business decision not a personal (emotional) decision.

November 9, 2008 at 9:45 am

Wally from Ar

The union needs to make serious concessions before GM gets any money. Whether the money from the government is a grant or loan. Spending good money after bad for conditions that will not make the automakers any more competitive will only prolong the eventual demise of the automakers. I can’t see how any company and union could be making a good decision to pay workers 140K plus to put windshield wipers on a car when I’m making 55k to be a software engineer. There has to be parity somewhere. If the automakers want only the UAW member to be their only customers then they should just continue doing business as usual without any government help. I cannnot understand why I need to be subsidizing people who are making rediculous wages.

November 10, 2008 at 11:09 am

Wally from Ar

Letting the car companies go bankrupt might be a blessing in disguise. Since they forced the situation with greed and bad decision making like the banking businesses, did let them go under. Just say no to greed. Where is Nacy Regan? What about the 2.5 million jobs? Well, let the soon-to-be auto workers either get new jobs as rickeshaw drivers or convert the plants into manufacturers of windmill generators and solar panels. The new green industries can be made from the old. This is where the blessing in disguise comes from. No new lones/grants to the automakers…only money to upgrade their factories to green energy products. Hopefully the new convertaprop windmills will appear in the windgenerator catalogs and showrooms soon.

November 10, 2008 at 11:11 am

Wally from Ar

To those that GM was the best, I say the market has spoken. You can't argue against that. The UAW has priced itself out of the market and the market is always right. When GM, Ford, and Chrysler go out of business then new companies will emerge that will learn from history what is required to be competitive. If you think that I don't care about the US manufacturers, you are right. This is a competitive world and the bottom line is that government will not be able to bail your companies out. Any help from the govt will just prolong the inevitalbe. Heny Ford's idea was to provide a car that every working person could afford. If the companies had held to that premise, all would still be right. Its only when greed and incompetance from the company side and the UAW did the basis of the industry become corrupt, inept and stupid.

November 10, 2008 at 11:19 am

Radarnav

Remove them from the DOW, as Wall Street has done with every other failing industry/company. Bail them out - NO!!!! Let them file Chapter 11 bankruptcy like any other US company that is unable to manage its business, successfully sell its products, or let's its costs run wild. All 3 US car manufacturers have the highest labor costs in the car industry - not warranted by the quality & longevity of their products. If the UAW wants the American taxpayer to bail them out so they can get their medical and pension plans funded, I have an alternative idea. Let UAW present to Wall Street a plan to takeover GM and make it profitable by them running it. Doubt they have the courage to do that - would require them to tell their members to "get a crip."

November 10, 2008 at 3:12 pm

Don

I agree it is time to dump GM from the Dow. They are the worst of the big three and we should not reward them. They are like an old car that is no longer worth fixing.

November 10, 2008 at 4:17 pm

about this blog

  • Elizabeth MacDonald is the stocks editor for Fox Business Network. She is recognized as one of the top prize-winning business journalists in the country, and has received 14 awards, including the top prize in business journalism, the Gerald Loeb Award for Distinguished Business Journalism, and the Newswomen's Club of New York Front Page Award for Excellence in Investigative Journalism.

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