Emac's Stock Watch | Fox Business
  • November 6, 2008 09:45 AM EST by Elizabeth MacDonald

    Dump General Motors From the Dow?

    Acting as an anvil on the neck of the Dow Jones Industrial Average is General Motors (GM), one of 30 corporate leaders thought to represent the U.S. economy.

    Citigroup (C) too. Time to dump both of them from the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

    Both are in desperate need of capital, and I expect both will have to  seek government help. I've told you plenty about Citi's rotten balance sheet. Time to turn to GM.

    For years GM has been under fire for mismanaging its business, for not losing money in years when the economy was firing on all cylinders--it lost $10.5 bn in 2005, when car sales were soaring higher.

    It has been criticized for now switching gears fast enough as gas prices rose to sell what car buyers wanted, fuel-efficient cars, as GM dithered dumping its unjustifiable gas hogs such as the Hummer brand, the stock has plunged to levels around the price of a gallon of gasoline or a gallon of milk, levels not seen since the ‘50s.

    GM's rapidly shriveling market capitalization at $3.2 bn is the tiniest in the Dow, with next in line Alcoa (AA). The aluminum manufacturer is valued at nearly three times as much, $9.4 bn.

    Ford has a bigger market value than GM, at $4.7 bn, but is not a Dow component. GM's status as a once iconic American brand is eroding as fast as that of Whirlpool, Eastman Kodak, Corning, and Sears.

    The stock market doesn't need a gauge of the auto industry, as it's not a news flash that car makers are getting a $25 bn loan from US taxpayers to retool their plants to make more fuel-efficient cars, a move they should have made decades ago.

    The Dow is a price-weighted average of 30 blue-chip stocks that are supposed to represent the largest and most widely held public companies in the country. The index of 30 has been the bellwether stock market index to watch since Oct. 1, 1928.

    It's been a long time since the Dow has been thought to be singularly "industrial," a quaint anachronism as many of the Dow's 30 components have little to do with manufacturing or heavy industry. The editors at the Wall Street Journal get to decide which stocks make up the Dow.

    It is time to dump GM from the Dow.

    Already, Kraft (KFT), whose former parent Altria Group (MO) was a Dow component until it was removed earlier this year, has replaced the disastrously managed American International Group (AIG) in September. Chevron (CVX) and Bank of America (BAC) replaced Altria Group and Honeywell (HON) earlier this year.

    The predominant issue in choosing the right replacement for GM is the fact that the index is price-weighted, so any one stock can really swing the Dow. 

    So that would rule out including the Federal Reserve, as Wall Street analyst Matthew Hougan suggests tongue in cheek, given that the Fed has been behaving more and more like a commercial bank, with massive lending to non-banks like General Electric (GE) and by buying up securities and debt instruments. General Electric is the only original member of the Dow--for now.

    So which stock should replace GM?

    Tech Stocks to Consider

    There are four tech stocks in the Dow: Hewlett-Packard (HPQ), IBM (IBM), Intel (INTC) and Microsoft (MSFT).

    Apple (AAPL) and Google (GOOG) have been talked about.  

    However, given Google's size and heft--its market cap is $107.6 bn--its stock price might be too much in terms of yanking around the Dow, as again, the index is price-weighted (see below).

    Apple, too, given that the volume of its shares traded tend to be thin, so earnings and other market news can whipsaw the stock and add to volatility. Perhaps to be considered, too, is the fact that its brand is closely identified with founder Steve Jobs, now said to be battling a rare form of pancreatic cancer.

    Telecom and communications equipment giant Cisco Systems (CSCO) would be a strong tech contender. It's got a $102.6 bn market cap, strong sales, and fairly conservative management given its history of earnings forecasts. Oracle (ORCL) with a market cap of $91.9 bn could also be considered.

    A Food Retailer to Consider

    What about PepsiCo (PEP), joining Dow members Coca-Cola (KO) and McDonald's (MCD) as a food retailer? With a market cap of $88.5 bn, the owner of Frito Lay and Gatorade as well as the soda Pepsi has been delivering steady sales growth.

    Other Ideas

    Hougan has suggested Philip Morris (PM), with a $90.3 bn market cap, ConocoPhillips (COP), with $79.7 bn, and Schlumberger (SLB) $60 bn. Also he says what ought to be taken into consideration is how various sectors are represented in the Dow versus the S&P 500.

    Sector Weight Number of Components S&P 500 Weight Difference
    Industrials 20.94% 7 11.39% 9.55%
    Information Technology 15.45% 4 15.94% -0.49%
    Energy 11.66% 2 13.14% -1.48%
    Consumer Staples 13.92% 2 12.29% 1.63%
    Financials 9.27 5 15.00% -5.73%
    Consumer Discretionary 9.96% 3 8.90% 1.06%
    Health Care 8.83% 3 13.02% -4.19%
    Materials 5.36% 2 3.65% 2.21%
    Telecommunications 4.62% 2 3.11% 1.51%
    Utilities 0% 0 3.56% -3.56%
          *IndexArb and S&P  

     Choosing the Right Replacement is Key

    The DJIA is price-weighted, meaning that a stock's weighting in the index is based on its price, regardless of how many shares outstanding the company has. Despite its name, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the index is not really a straightforward, actual average arrived at by adding up its stock prices and dividing by 30.

    That's because of things like stock splits. Say a Dow company has just 100 shares of stock and its stock trades at $100.

    However, the company's executives, who should always worry about their capital base, figure that there will be more investors plowing into their stock if the shares were trading at $50. So they do a stock split.

    One hundred shares of stock at $100 would deliver a market cap of $10,000. A stock split would mean 200 shares of stock at $50-same market cap of $10,000-but now investors have more shares and company executives can breathe easier because their equity base is a bit more flexible.

    However, the change in the stock price due to the split would bring down the value of DJIA, even though there is no fundamental change in the stock. 

    So to take into account the effect of price changes from stock splits, the Journal editors calculate the DJIA by using a Dow divisor.

    To arrive at the value of the index, the component prices are added up and then divided by a divisor, a number that changes whenever one of the Dow stocks has a dividend or a stock split.

B Scott

After re-reading the comments above I think I must sound the alarm... America.. the country has been invaded, the enemy is on the doorsteps,the only recourse is to immediately go out and buy a Ford or Chevy.

November 17, 2008 at 11:07 pm

Bert

To N. Siegal: Thanks for understanding that car manufacturers build what people want to buy and leave on dealers' lots what they don't want to buy. Awfully hard for them to determine next spring's hot product when they don't control environmental factors such as fuel prices, interest rates, etc.And since dealers pay the interest on the inventory stocked, we don't want to stock stuff that isn't selling either. That's why our reps made us take Focuses last fall which weren't selling if we wanted to get trucks which were. To Chirs: Front wheel drives were chosen not for repairability (or lack of) but as a response to lighten cars up to meet Corporate Average Fuel Economy standards. Lighter cars do get better fuel economy. That's why the Fiesta when it goes on sale here won't get what it does in Europe. Must make it heavier to carry the structure to meet US collision safety standards. To everyone else: We call the current bailout process the "UAW bailout" program, not the "Big 3 bailout" program. We can funnel money forever into those black holes and until one fails and reorganizes, they will all continue to be structurally flawed enterprises. And as far as being a dealer is concerned, recognize that on the same MSRP vehicle comparing it to an import, the import dealer will made a heck of a lot more than we will. There are some models in our domestic product line that if we sell for full sticker, we still make less than $500 on from "box" invoice so maybe that gives you guys insight into the cost disadvantage the Big 3 have. We dealers have (and probably will continue) to hide it for them as the manufacturers chop our margins to hold minor MSRP price increases.

November 17, 2008 at 5:32 pm

Kurt

It is time to do what should have been done long ago...LET THEM DIE! What is good for GM IS NOT good for America. It is more than past time for Americans to learn HARD LESSONS...THEY ARE NOT OWED A LIVING! If we need to have soup kitchens again, then SO BET IT! Time for Americans to reap what they have sown. If you do not live WELL BELOW your means, then you DESERVE what is coming. LET THEM DIE!

November 17, 2008 at 11:13 am

Bob -- Arizona

Interesting comments - the reality is that Unions have demanded more ‘milk’ from an empty bottle for so many years that reality has finally arrived at their door - and with the recent election results they are going back to what has worked in the past, i.e. closed door meetings with Congress - and we can expect to see the 'auto States' continue to fall behind the rest of the United States in terms of unemployment figures - at some point the price of successful 'closed door meetings' will be open to the American public and they will see that it is time to give GM its final reality - “it is no longer “what is good for GM is good for America” - which has been proven through the decline in Union membership - except for those who have been elected to Congress.

November 17, 2008 at 10:04 am

Larry Clockwant

Good idea, GM no longer represents an overall indicator of the broad market, therefore a replacement would be in order. Larry Clockwant

November 16, 2008 at 6:56 pm

humphrmi

I've got a better idea. Whenever any Dow Indu component stock goes down, just replace it with one that is going up? Then the Dow Indu will always go up! We'll all be rich!

November 16, 2008 at 1:31 pm

Dennis

For all you bleeding hearts out there that think we should bail these losers out,think about these issues,How about the union job banks that pay workers up to 100% of there wage not to work? this has cost the big 3 billions! how about the health care package for the auto workers and the retired auto workers that buy their Viagra! this alone has cost GM 17 to 20 million a year and this is just GM!Or red ink Rick Wagner the CEO of GM and his 14 million plus yearly pay and he just got a bump on that in April of this year.That is more then the top 5 CEO's get at Toyota put together!This is all passed on to the person that is buying a car from one of the big three,the problem here is most of the car buying public dose not have a clue this is going on.Then add in all the other problems and 20 years of bad mistakes and you have the perfect storm,they are paying for all this big time now.I for one am done with buying a UAW built car,I can not see why we should support any of these Companys that need a tax payer hand out that will only prolong what we all know will happen in the end anyway,Just today the head of the auto workers union came out and said they will not give any thing back to the auto Companys,say what? So I should just suck it it and be a good American and buy a car from one of these losers? Sorry

November 15, 2008 at 3:46 pm

chris

to take gm off the dow is useless because it may make that dow number look go to investors but underlining story is the big three got away from what they shouldof down along time ago . Build cars that the american people can afford and keep . I believe the big three screwed up when they started pushing front wheel cars. To them this was also a money maker because if you got into a accident your car was basically destroyed.They would either make their money on parts or hope your insurance company would right your car off pretty much forcing you to purchase a new car. An know the value the insurance company valued your car was not what it was purchased for.Think about the cars gm made back in the 60's yes gas guzzelers but if u hit something im sure that car was stiil driveable. What im tring to say in short listen to the american people they will tell you what kind off cars they want WAKE UP!

November 15, 2008 at 12:09 pm

B Scott

After reading all the above comments, I am quite concerned that a good number of peoples drinking water has been laced,I urge those people to take a sample to their local public health office.To those whose samples turn out positive,I recommend that you take your medication at the correct intervals

November 14, 2008 at 11:52 pm

Average Joe

Dump all of them who are sticking out their hands for money they lost due to bad decision making. Why would someone get such a huge salary when they probably couldn't decide themselves out of a paper bag. Get rid of the good ol boy network with these executives, and if the majority stockholder wants to put his brother-in-law with a basket weaving degree in the CEO spot just to satiate his wife's nagging, let 'em drown in the bankruptcy.

November 14, 2008 at 3:15 pm

LKA

It is time to dump GM from the Dow. YES end

November 14, 2008 at 10:44 am

John

It was fine to keep GM on the DOW up to now. Leave it there going forward. Thats another thing wrong with us as a country - we live by metrics only when their components are good. Let one go south and rather than fix the problem we take the simple minded route and remove it; rather than show that something is wrong! Hmmm, seems we do that with a lot of things lately.

November 14, 2008 at 9:30 am

N. Siegal

Bert - I don't know what happened to my first post here. Fox Blogs tend to lose my posts and I can't figure out why. (They can't handle the truth.... haha) But people need to pay attention to what your saying. The idiot liberals like to blame Detroit when they dont' understand Detroit sells what people want. Same thing happened in the 70s. After the first oil spike in '73 big cars died. Then as oil tapered off a bit and people got used to it they took off again and Town Cars were huge in '79 until the second oil shock hit. Look at imports... they have all made their cars bigger with bigger engines.. more like American cars. The Europenas and Japanese now build V8s which they never did before. Look at a CRV or RAV4 which is much bigger than they were in the late 90s. The $25 billion to retool is BS. There is no special tooling needed to build fuel efficient cars. Its just a cover to make it more palatable to the public. Let the all 3 go bankrupt. They will keep operating. The shareholders will be wiped out which they should for not putting in place managers who would stand up to the unions. The retirees and current employees will take a big hit in benefits which were blackmailed out of the industry by the unions (too long to explain here). And the debt holders will take a hit. The people who should be penalized will be. The companies will keep operating and will emerge healthier for it. The public will keep buying what they want. I don't want the Marxist Haferican-American lying POS telling me what I can buy and not buy. After he takes care of his extended family created by his drunk bigamist scumbag father who blew a 1 in 100 million opportunity (Kenyan goes to Harvard in 1959). Then he can talk about taking care of the rest of us. We all have a choice... fight the idiot liberals and Obamas of this country or cede the country to them and move elsewhere. Whatcha going to do?

November 13, 2008 at 11:49 am

KT

Well oil companies rely on automakers, especially the manufacturers of SUV and Trucks. How come they are not rushing to assist the industry that is important to them? It would be an absolute shame to watch these Icons of America go down the tubes.

November 13, 2008 at 9:18 am

Kent M

You hear in the media all the time about the information age, but too many Americans don't realize what the heck that means. When we were in the "agrarian age", the most vital cog in the economic machine was the land to grow crops. We entered the "industrial age" when the most vital cog in the economic machine was the industrial plant that made the products. We entered the "information age" when the most vital cog in the economic machine became the mastery of information. This started in the 50's, and we officially entered the "information age" sometime in the 80's. What this means is that the most important economic jobs are related to processing information. Whether its tech giants like Microsoft and Google, or tech and data processing positions at other companies (energy, telecommunications, distribution, retail, marketing, you name it). The pharmaceutical industry is not just about laboratories; they hire tens of thousands of people to sort through data associated with clinical trials. Wal-mart is the largest company on the planet because of their mastery of information, and acting on that information to drive down costs. You don't have to be a tech person; you just have to collect, process, and analyze data. For all of you people worried about losing millions of automotive sector jobs; wake up. We are no longer in the industrial age. Someone from China, India, or Venezuela who can't speak English can work in a factory and make a product for 35 cents an hour (good pay relative to the cost of living). Having Americans do that same job for $35/hr is foolish. We need more people doing information sector jobs and less doing manufacturing, ESPECIALLY when the manufacturing jobs are overpriced like the UAW jobs. There is always room for specialty manufacturing in the USA, like a tool and die company I know which mastered product data to make parts that the Chinese can't get right. But mainstream automaton manufacturing jobs need to go bye bye. As far as tax payers picking up the burden if the auto sector goes bust, I don't know ONE SINGLE COMPANY that can hire enough good people. Between the big government laws that protect incompetent people from getting fired, labor lawyers and the legal system, as well as the growing entitlement mentality of the mainstream American worker, it is too hard to find good people. Unemployment needs to hit 10%...then people might start to wake up and begin working for their paychecks again. In Star Trek VI, when Captain Kirk and Mr. Spock are debating negotiating with the Klingon Empire to save them from environmental disaster, Mr. Spock's "liberal" comment was "Jim...they are dying.". Captain Kirk's Darwinian response was "Let them die". I say let the Big 3 die; its time we moved on.

November 12, 2008 at 9:14 pm

lewis smith

Now that we have helped out the 'White Collar Guy's' on wall street we can now say the heck with the 'Blue Collar Guy'. Yes it's true that maybe a Union worker might make $30.00/hr. plus some fringes but he has to be on the job all the time. As for a Wall Street fellow they can do a lot of their work away from the job plus still get paid big bucks and receive a Bonus even when not doing a quality job. As for kicking GM off the Dow it would make since to do that as long you replace them Toyota after all it is a World Wide Economy.

November 12, 2008 at 8:46 pm

Rob C.

Go ahead and dump GM it is a penny stock now and soon may not even make the s&p 500 cut either. I recommend JCI Johnson controls supplies both the usa and japanese car companies as well as residential and comercial heating and cooling we need to have some manufacturing still in the dow INDUSTRIALS

November 12, 2008 at 5:54 pm

Hugh

I say help out the Big 3. They were producing just what we wanted, SUVs and Trucks. Yes they should have been producing more fuel efficent cars and trucks but they gave us what we wanted. Their only mistake was having a short memory by not remembering what happened during the 1973 Fuel embargo. What did the American public do, run out and buy a forgien car. After the crisis what did we do but buy more American big cars and trucks (fickle huh). As far as the unions are concerned when the Big 3 had the corner on the market after WWII they could afford the good contracts. It was only when compeition from forgein car companies with no EPA or OHSA and paying pennies on the dollar for wages did things start to go wrong. Yes they've made mistakes but to put possibly 2 million people out of work could devastate our ecomony. As far as quality in concerned by 2000 GMC still looks and run great!

November 12, 2008 at 12:54 pm

Barb

Want to talk about boosting the economy ? Nationwide ? If the big guys can keep a sloppy house and let finances go to ruin, and still get bundles of greenback to bail them out, then, why not "Average Joe" or Average Jane " ? The people that have bad credit scores, that don't have buying power ... give them credit amnesty for 120 days... then, they could be considered for new car purchases... and other purchases that would give the economy a shot in the arm ... keep the auto makers a little above water and give the average joe and average jane a chance to redeem themselves. While some of them would obviously not hold up their end of the bargain, I dare bet, that the majority would prove that confidence in them would be well worth the effort. It would give them an opportunity to improve their life styles, possibly by having better transportation, could commute to a better paying job, or school for creditation in a field that is a bit more stable, and long term, would reward the efforts to " forgive " them as opposed to the big wall street guys with deep pockets lined in dollars that are intended to " relieve " their burdens.

November 12, 2008 at 6:26 am

wha

I enjoyed reading the diverse opinions of several Americans, all of whom bring a unique frame of reference to the discussion.I remember the slogan when I was growing up " As General Motors Goes, so goes the nation." Wow, we have gone through so much change to make a deeply held belief that a once highly revered icon has been reduced to such a disparaging footnote. My personal point of view is that we the American public share some of the blame and there is plenty to go around. Whatever happened to the pride we all once felt as typified by the greatest generation, our parents or grandparents? Self reliance, determination and an uncanny ability to transcend even the most difficult times...it is as if we are ashamed as once proclaiming to have those virtues. Ah, enter the media and the left.

November 11, 2008 at 5:33 pm

Helen Musser

Dear Liz, I am amazed at how quickly the news media has written off the auto industry. We will not only be dependent on foreign countries for energy, If the auto industry is driven into bankrupsty, we will be dependent on Japan, Germany, and Korea for jobs in this country. It is sad to see foreign countries taking over our country

November 11, 2008 at 3:09 pm

Jean

Joe McFarley, you are a smart man and absolutely right. I don't think that there should be bailout money given to the automakers....but instead free trade should be stopped. Free trade is what has put the USA in the position it is in today. The USA have become a country of consumers, and no more manufacturing. We depend on other countries for everything, and look where we are today. Stop free trade and where are we? We are then given no choice but to start producing again, creates many jobs, and once again an independant nation. Until free trade is stopped, things will not get better. No foreign cars able to come into the USA, people have no choice but to buy AMERICAN MADE! Every car I've ever owned was a Ford, and they lasted just as long as my friends cars that were foreign....and mine rode better too....not like a lunchbox. My husband drives a GMC Pick up...and there is no foreign pick up made that could withstand the abuse that his does working in the logging industry. So, don't give the BS that foreign cars last longer and of better quality....that is just an excuse. And as far as prices goes, the big 3 are more affordable. P.S....when is the last time you saw a 9ft snow plow on a foreign pick up?

November 10, 2008 at 9:16 pm

Ruby

yOU CAN THANK OUR DEAR unions AND THEIR GREEDY LOBBYIST FOR THEIR OWN MISTAKES. bUT, THIS IS WHAT HAPPENS WHEN UNIONS TAKE OVER BUSINESSES AND HOLD THEM HOSTAGES. tHE FUTURE IS LOOKING VERY BLEAK FOR us MANUFACTURING. i HAVE ONE gm, 2 fORDS, AND ONE hYUNDAI. i LIKE THEM ALL AND THEY HAVE OVER 120,00 EACH,,,WELL, THE hYUNDAI HAS 80,000. i WILL DRIVE THEM UNTIL THEY DIE. hAVEN'T SPENT $300.00 OVER USUAL MAINTENANCE ON ANY OF THEM. i CAN AFFORD $10. A GALLON PRICES WITH no MONTHLY CAR PAYMENTS. cAN YOU?

November 10, 2008 at 7:26 pm

jt

My last several cars have been GM and while I'd love to see them succeed I just can't support bailing them out with my tax dollars. GM's supposed plan for success is to build fewer cars and to charge more for them, I really can't see how they can get anywhere with that, I'd love to buy a new Suburban to replace my 2003 but I'm sure as heck not going to pay more for one in this market. So they will have the same number of blue collar workers building fewer cars? Doesn't make sense to me unless your core business is paying union wages and benefits and not building cars. Has there ever been a sector that has succeeded over the long term with union labor? The steel industry is gone, airlines, telecom and now auto makers are all close to bankruptcy. What's next?

November 10, 2008 at 4:57 pm

Don

I agree it is time to dump GM from the Dow. They are the worst of the big three and we should not reward them. They are like an old car that is no longer worth fixing.

November 10, 2008 at 4:17 pm

about this blog

  • Elizabeth MacDonald is the stocks editor for Fox Business Network. She is recognized as one of the top prize-winning business journalists in the country, and has received 14 awards, including the top prize in business journalism, the Gerald Loeb Award for Distinguished Business Journalism, and the Newswomen's Club of New York Front Page Award for Excellence in Investigative Journalism.

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