Acting as an anvil on the neck of the Dow Jones Industrial Average is General Motors (GM), one of 30 corporate leaders thought to represent the U.S. economy.
Citigroup (C) too. Time to dump both of them from the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
Both are in desperate need of capital, and I expect both will have to seek government help. I've told you plenty about Citi's rotten balance sheet. Time to turn to GM.
For years GM has been under fire for mismanaging its business, for not losing money in years when the economy was firing on all cylinders--it lost $10.5 bn in 2005, when car sales were soaring higher.
It has been criticized for now switching gears fast enough as gas prices rose to sell what car buyers wanted, fuel-efficient cars, as GM dithered dumping its unjustifiable gas hogs such as the Hummer brand, the stock has plunged to levels around the price of a gallon of gasoline or a gallon of milk, levels not seen since the ‘50s.
GM's rapidly shriveling market capitalization at $3.2 bn is the tiniest in the Dow, with next in line Alcoa (AA). The aluminum manufacturer is valued at nearly three times as much, $9.4 bn.
Ford has a bigger market value than GM, at $4.7 bn, but is not a Dow component. GM's status as a once iconic American brand is eroding as fast as that of Whirlpool, Eastman Kodak, Corning, and Sears.
The stock market doesn't need a gauge of the auto industry, as it's not a news flash that car makers are getting a $25 bn loan from US taxpayers to retool their plants to make more fuel-efficient cars, a move they should have made decades ago.
The Dow is a price-weighted average of 30 blue-chip stocks that are supposed to represent the largest and most widely held public companies in the country. The index of 30 has been the bellwether stock market index to watch since Oct. 1, 1928.
It's been a long time since the Dow has been thought to be singularly "industrial," a quaint anachronism as many of the Dow's 30 components have little to do with manufacturing or heavy industry. The editors at the Wall Street Journal get to decide which stocks make up the Dow.
It is time to dump GM from the Dow.
Already, Kraft (KFT), whose former parent Altria Group (MO) was a Dow component until it was removed earlier this year, has replaced the disastrously managed American International Group (AIG) in September. Chevron (CVX) and Bank of America (BAC) replaced Altria Group and Honeywell (HON) earlier this year.
The predominant issue in choosing the right replacement for GM is the fact that the index is price-weighted, so any one stock can really swing the Dow.
So that would rule out including the Federal Reserve, as Wall Street analyst Matthew Hougan suggests tongue in cheek, given that the Fed has been behaving more and more like a commercial bank, with massive lending to non-banks like General Electric (GE) and by buying up securities and debt instruments. General Electric is the only original member of the Dow--for now.
So which stock should replace GM?
Tech Stocks to Consider
There are four tech stocks in the Dow: Hewlett-Packard (HPQ), IBM (IBM), Intel (INTC) and Microsoft (MSFT).
Apple (AAPL) and Google (GOOG) have been talked about.
However, given Google's size and heft--its market cap is $107.6 bn--its stock price might be too much in terms of yanking around the Dow, as again, the index is price-weighted (see below).
Apple, too, given that the volume of its shares traded tend to be thin, so earnings and other market news can whipsaw the stock and add to volatility. Perhaps to be considered, too, is the fact that its brand is closely identified with founder Steve Jobs, now said to be battling a rare form of pancreatic cancer.
Telecom and communications equipment giant Cisco Systems (CSCO) would be a strong tech contender. It's got a $102.6 bn market cap, strong sales, and fairly conservative management given its history of earnings forecasts. Oracle (ORCL) with a market cap of $91.9 bn could also be considered.
A Food Retailer to Consider
What about PepsiCo (PEP), joining Dow members Coca-Cola (KO) and McDonald's (MCD) as a food retailer? With a market cap of $88.5 bn, the owner of Frito Lay and Gatorade as well as the soda Pepsi has been delivering steady sales growth.
Other Ideas
Hougan has suggested Philip Morris (PM), with a $90.3 bn market cap, ConocoPhillips (COP), with $79.7 bn, and Schlumberger (SLB) $60 bn. Also he says what ought to be taken into consideration is how various sectors are represented in the Dow versus the S&P 500.
Sector
Weight
Number of Components
S&P 500 Weight
Difference
Industrials
20.94%
7
11.39%
9.55%
Information Technology
15.45%
4
15.94%
-0.49%
Energy
11.66%
2
13.14%
-1.48%
Consumer Staples
13.92%
2
12.29%
1.63%
Financials
9.27
5
15.00%
-5.73%
Consumer Discretionary
9.96%
3
8.90%
1.06%
Health Care
8.83%
3
13.02%
-4.19%
Materials
5.36%
2
3.65%
2.21%
Telecommunications
4.62%
2
3.11%
1.51%
Utilities
0%
0
3.56%
-3.56%
*IndexArb and S&P
Choosing the Right Replacement is Key
The DJIA is price-weighted, meaning that a stock's weighting in the index is based on its price, regardless of how many shares outstanding the company has. Despite its name, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the index is not really a straightforward, actual average arrived at by adding up its stock prices and dividing by 30.
That's because of things like stock splits. Say a Dow company has just 100 shares of stock and its stock trades at $100.
However, the company's executives, who should always worry about their capital base, figure that there will be more investors plowing into their stock if the shares were trading at $50. So they do a stock split.
One hundred shares of stock at $100 would deliver a market cap of $10,000. A stock split would mean 200 shares of stock at $50-same market cap of $10,000-but now investors have more shares and company executives can breathe easier because their equity base is a bit more flexible.
However, the change in the stock price due to the split would bring down the value of DJIA, even though there is no fundamental change in the stock.
So to take into account the effect of price changes from stock splits, the Journal editors calculate the DJIA by using a Dow divisor.
To arrive at the value of the index, the component prices are added up and then divided by a divisor, a number that changes whenever one of the Dow stocks has a dividend or a stock split.
Hey Elizabeth
GM is no longer an automaker its a Union Pension PLan provider
I say dump the Union.
November 6, 2008 at 7:54 pm
deb
gm has some of the most reliable autos to be had- do your homework jeanne.
they have the best warranty, most cars with 30 plus mpg, rated by jd power and car and driver as some of the best AND you aren't paying for the name you have been brainwashed into believing is the best!
November 6, 2008 at 7:13 pm
Jeff M
"
Comment by Jeanne
Nov 6th, 2008 at 4:38 pm
Note to B Scott
If I found a GM or Ford that I was as well made as a Nissan or Toyota, I would be very happy to put one in my driveway. GM and Ford need to offer me something comparable (cost-wise and quality-wise) to what’s available from other auto manufacturers if they expect to increase their sales."
Maybe you haven't been paying attention, but domestic quality has improved dramatically. But don't take my word for it - J.D. Power ranks the Chevy Malibu and Ford Fusion as the #1 and #3 in the mid-size sedan segment and the Pontiac Grand Prix, Mercury Sable, and Mercury Grand Marques as the top 3 in the large sedan segment.
http://www.jdpower.com/autos/articles/2008-Initial-Quality:-Midsize-and-Large-Cars
November 6, 2008 at 6:45 pm
Ed Arcuri
We don't need to restrict imports to protect our automakers the way the Japanese and Koreans do. We need only to have consumers who actually shop for their next automotive purchase instead of buying blindly. It is not true that GM has failed to make fuel efficient cars. Reports of this type repeat this misinformation, but they don't make it true. GM has more fuel efficient models, across a broader spectrum, than does any other manufacturer.
It is not true that domestically produced autos are of lesser quality. The warranty cost data alone disprove it.
In my family we have two imports and two domestics. Each has proven to be a fine value. Please shop, don't assume. . . certainly don't take the word of these "experts" as the final word on the subject.
Cheers, Ed Arcuri
November 6, 2008 at 6:41 pm
Bert
OH, forgot to put in my last post -- gas prices here have dropped to $1.97 at some stations and of our last nine vehicle deliveries, one has been a compact car, one a mid-size SUV and the other seven have been full-size pick-ups. Cheeeeezzzzz!!!!
November 6, 2008 at 6:35 pm
Bert
I am in the new car business in central Texas and I have a newsflash for a bunch of folks. Twelve months ago we could not give away a compact or mid-size car even though by all measures we were equaling or bettering Toyota in quality. Our reps were "welding" the small cars with SUV and truck orders so we would take them since they were stacked up everywhere. Then the gas crunch hit and folks who had bought a truck or SUV just a short time earlier, were in to trade them in for small cars. Long and short of it -- even had the domestics geared up for it, they would have been in trouble because there would have been little demand for their product. In the meantime, the company whose products I represent has diesels running around in Europe that get 65 mpg, but they'll never be sold here because they don't meet US collision safety standards. One last point, the smart a**es in Washinton who think they can repeal the laws of physics by fiat aren't smart enough to realize that trade-offs have to be made for things to work. It's not the President who is screwing things up, it's the morons in Congress and the Senate that are so full of themselves that they beleive the sun doesn't rise unless they command it to.
November 6, 2008 at 6:17 pm
xxx
Why do cars cost so much, especially American cars. Why should I have to go into debt up to my eyeballs just to have a new car. Car prices should reflect the current trends of our economy. The incentives there are offering are a joke, I say let them all go under, they have done nothing to change the fuel consumption of their vehicles and only when they needed help from our government did they say they would start to look into this technology.We produce entirely to many vehicles in this country, there should be a limit on that.Prices on vehicles need to come way down before I will consider buying another vehicle. The American consumer has paid too much for too long its time for a change.
November 6, 2008 at 6:00 pm
TomK
GM, Ford and Chrysler were indeed inferior... in the past. Those who don't believe that they have caught up in value have become victims of their own biases. We owe a nod of thanks to the imports for waking us up to what we should expect in quality, but it's time to give up the prejudices that keep us captive to the peer pressure of buying the latest Hontoydasan like our neighbors have. The biggest problem the domestics face today is a result of the unwavering insistence on the part of some that their jobs be "protected" at all costs, and continued anti-domestic preconceptions.
November 6, 2008 at 5:52 pm
mark smith
pravada west and you .. for all their faults g.m. is still american.. still us
stop the propaganda fox and look to your own futures, none of you could get a job with a real news organization.
November 6, 2008 at 5:47 pm
trappa
Remove GM from the Dow for the time being.They will get the goverment bailout (handout) that they are asking for.The Feds however should make it conditional that they get rid of the blood sucking UAW that got them and the rest of the big three in this condition.Then and only then will GM return to its former glory.
November 6, 2008 at 5:41 pm
Lane C
I used to work for the dealerships. I remember how the factory pressured the dealers and the dealers pressured its employees like slaves. 17 hour days were common. Have a good month and they fire you or rearrange your pay plan. They deserve every bit of this and I will not even pause to spit on the big bon fire that the auto industry will soon be. All the big wigs will walk away rich and GOOD LUCK trying to get a job once you have been in the auto industry!
Yes, I will dance around their funeral pyre!
November 6, 2008 at 5:34 pm
Jim C
"Advice to the American public…if you put a GM or Ford in your driveway, their,d be no talk of dumping GM.The public is responsible for much of their own demise"
So we should ban imports? Then we'll get the same crappy US cars that we had in the 60's and 70's. They're out of business because there's no market for their product. They need to start building a long lasting fuel efficient and afforable car. Then the stock will rise. Is this possible? Unions control the labor, which is reflected in the price of the car. You tell me.
We buy imports because they are better quality.
These bailouts just spread the misery. Instead of a few people out of work, we'll raise eveyone's taxes so GM can keep building gas guzzlers that no one wants. They'll probably use the money to take their employees on a gold outing.
November 6, 2008 at 5:00 pm
Jeanne
Note to B Scott
If I found a GM or Ford that I was as well made as a Nissan or Toyota, I would be very happy to put one in my driveway. GM and Ford need to offer me something comparable (cost-wise and quality-wise) to what's available from other auto manufacturers if they expect to increase their sales.
November 6, 2008 at 4:38 pm
whisp
DUMP GEN. MOTORS FROM DOW? AND THEN FORD AND THEN CHRYSLER AND THEN, AND THEN, AND THEN UNTIL THE NEW EXCITING GOVERNMENT WILL CONFISCATE THEM AND WE WILL HAVE THE BEGINNING OF A REAL COMMUNISTIC SYSTEM. THE CURRENT CROP OF HARVARD TRAINED WALL STREET WIZARDS CANNOT SEE THAT THEIR CAREERS ARE RAPIDLY COMING TO AN END. SO, YES! TAKE IT OFF THE DOW AND LETS GET THIS THING OVER.
November 6, 2008 at 4:17 pm
George L. Gettemuller
No, it will come back soon. and it is needed in the average. lossing GM will through the average off and long term averages useless.
November 6, 2008 at 4:16 pm
TomK
There is much more at stake here than just who is listed on the Dow. Dropping GM would just help keep the snow ball rolling down hill toward a possible failure of the company. Continuing talk like this will help make it so. You might as well print up 2.5 million pink slips with your next article recommending the dropping of GM.
November 6, 2008 at 3:23 pm
vanderson
The ongoing DOW component shuffle is investor deception.
November 6, 2008 at 2:57 pm
B Scott
Advice to the American public...if you put a GM or Ford in your driveway, their,d be no talk of dumping GM.The public is responsible for much of their own demise.
November 6, 2008 at 2:49 pm
John
Well, the government and the boys across the river have done a fine job in in assisting in the auto makers destruction. Now lets see how they live with it's demise. It's time to STOP feeding money into this black hole that they have created!
November 6, 2008 at 1:45 pm
Loren R.
ELIZABETH:
WHY ARE POLICTICANS (DEMOCRAT-PELOSI) HOLDING CLOSED DOOR MEETINGS WTH AUTO EXECS AND UNION LEADERS? YOU ARE EXACTLY RIGHT; A BLIND MAN ON FLYING HORSE AT 100 YARDS COULD HAVE SEEN THIS COMING IN THE AUTO INDUSTRY!
WHERE DO THE BAILOUTS STOP? WHO HAS THE COURAGE TO SAY NO AND LET THE CHIPS FALL WHERE THEY MAY? COMPANY BAILOUTS ARE WRONG AND THEY NEED TO STOP! PEOPLE NEED TO BE HELD ACCOUNTABLE FOR THEIR ACTIONS...EXECS,UNION LEADERS AND POLITICIANS!
MICHIGAN IS A TOTAL DISASTER...UNDER DEMOCRATIC RULE FOR DECADES AND THEYT JUST KEEP RE-ELECTING THESE DUNDERHEADS...
THE EFFORT TO BAIL OUT THESE CLOWNS IS A TOTAL WASTE OF TIME AND MONEY...LET THE AUCTION BEGIN!
November 6, 2008 at 1:08 pm
Gary Driscoll
The shifting indices are yet additional frauds that are foisted upon the public. Sure the stock market historically keeps going up--we remove the losers from what is reported. That makes the Dow a totally meaningless measure of the value of investing. GM is an extremely valid indicator of the current investment climate in the US.
November 6, 2008 at 1:07 pm
aaron
Why not replace GM with the company most responsible for it's current problems; the UAW, technically not a company but they are the biggest 'competition' for any success GM might hope to have.
November 6, 2008 at 12:07 pm
Eric W
Dump GM from the Dow? I don’t think so. I contend that it DOES represent
The US economy. Removing it from the list is akin to calculating grade point average by only using courses with a B or above, for example. GM is a poorly run, inefficient giant and it should be there because it contributes mightily to the condition of this market.
November 6, 2008 at 11:16 am
JeezeLiz
Jeeze Liz
Always got the ideas.
I like that idea - because if I get your point ? it's taking and making others look bad.
REAL neat suggestion.
Wonder how that process happens.
Subscribe to Comments
Luis
Hey Elizabeth GM is no longer an automaker its a Union Pension PLan provider I say dump the Union.
deb
gm has some of the most reliable autos to be had- do your homework jeanne. they have the best warranty, most cars with 30 plus mpg, rated by jd power and car and driver as some of the best AND you aren't paying for the name you have been brainwashed into believing is the best!
Jeff M
" Comment by Jeanne Nov 6th, 2008 at 4:38 pm Note to B Scott If I found a GM or Ford that I was as well made as a Nissan or Toyota, I would be very happy to put one in my driveway. GM and Ford need to offer me something comparable (cost-wise and quality-wise) to what’s available from other auto manufacturers if they expect to increase their sales." Maybe you haven't been paying attention, but domestic quality has improved dramatically. But don't take my word for it - J.D. Power ranks the Chevy Malibu and Ford Fusion as the #1 and #3 in the mid-size sedan segment and the Pontiac Grand Prix, Mercury Sable, and Mercury Grand Marques as the top 3 in the large sedan segment. http://www.jdpower.com/autos/articles/2008-Initial-Quality:-Midsize-and-Large-Cars
Ed Arcuri
We don't need to restrict imports to protect our automakers the way the Japanese and Koreans do. We need only to have consumers who actually shop for their next automotive purchase instead of buying blindly. It is not true that GM has failed to make fuel efficient cars. Reports of this type repeat this misinformation, but they don't make it true. GM has more fuel efficient models, across a broader spectrum, than does any other manufacturer. It is not true that domestically produced autos are of lesser quality. The warranty cost data alone disprove it. In my family we have two imports and two domestics. Each has proven to be a fine value. Please shop, don't assume. . . certainly don't take the word of these "experts" as the final word on the subject. Cheers, Ed Arcuri
Bert
OH, forgot to put in my last post -- gas prices here have dropped to $1.97 at some stations and of our last nine vehicle deliveries, one has been a compact car, one a mid-size SUV and the other seven have been full-size pick-ups. Cheeeeezzzzz!!!!
Bert
I am in the new car business in central Texas and I have a newsflash for a bunch of folks. Twelve months ago we could not give away a compact or mid-size car even though by all measures we were equaling or bettering Toyota in quality. Our reps were "welding" the small cars with SUV and truck orders so we would take them since they were stacked up everywhere. Then the gas crunch hit and folks who had bought a truck or SUV just a short time earlier, were in to trade them in for small cars. Long and short of it -- even had the domestics geared up for it, they would have been in trouble because there would have been little demand for their product. In the meantime, the company whose products I represent has diesels running around in Europe that get 65 mpg, but they'll never be sold here because they don't meet US collision safety standards. One last point, the smart a**es in Washinton who think they can repeal the laws of physics by fiat aren't smart enough to realize that trade-offs have to be made for things to work. It's not the President who is screwing things up, it's the morons in Congress and the Senate that are so full of themselves that they beleive the sun doesn't rise unless they command it to.
xxx
Why do cars cost so much, especially American cars. Why should I have to go into debt up to my eyeballs just to have a new car. Car prices should reflect the current trends of our economy. The incentives there are offering are a joke, I say let them all go under, they have done nothing to change the fuel consumption of their vehicles and only when they needed help from our government did they say they would start to look into this technology.We produce entirely to many vehicles in this country, there should be a limit on that.Prices on vehicles need to come way down before I will consider buying another vehicle. The American consumer has paid too much for too long its time for a change.
TomK
GM, Ford and Chrysler were indeed inferior... in the past. Those who don't believe that they have caught up in value have become victims of their own biases. We owe a nod of thanks to the imports for waking us up to what we should expect in quality, but it's time to give up the prejudices that keep us captive to the peer pressure of buying the latest Hontoydasan like our neighbors have. The biggest problem the domestics face today is a result of the unwavering insistence on the part of some that their jobs be "protected" at all costs, and continued anti-domestic preconceptions.
mark smith
pravada west and you .. for all their faults g.m. is still american.. still us stop the propaganda fox and look to your own futures, none of you could get a job with a real news organization.
trappa
Remove GM from the Dow for the time being.They will get the goverment bailout (handout) that they are asking for.The Feds however should make it conditional that they get rid of the blood sucking UAW that got them and the rest of the big three in this condition.Then and only then will GM return to its former glory.
Lane C
I used to work for the dealerships. I remember how the factory pressured the dealers and the dealers pressured its employees like slaves. 17 hour days were common. Have a good month and they fire you or rearrange your pay plan. They deserve every bit of this and I will not even pause to spit on the big bon fire that the auto industry will soon be. All the big wigs will walk away rich and GOOD LUCK trying to get a job once you have been in the auto industry! Yes, I will dance around their funeral pyre!
Jim C
"Advice to the American public…if you put a GM or Ford in your driveway, their,d be no talk of dumping GM.The public is responsible for much of their own demise" So we should ban imports? Then we'll get the same crappy US cars that we had in the 60's and 70's. They're out of business because there's no market for their product. They need to start building a long lasting fuel efficient and afforable car. Then the stock will rise. Is this possible? Unions control the labor, which is reflected in the price of the car. You tell me. We buy imports because they are better quality. These bailouts just spread the misery. Instead of a few people out of work, we'll raise eveyone's taxes so GM can keep building gas guzzlers that no one wants. They'll probably use the money to take their employees on a gold outing.
Jeanne
Note to B Scott If I found a GM or Ford that I was as well made as a Nissan or Toyota, I would be very happy to put one in my driveway. GM and Ford need to offer me something comparable (cost-wise and quality-wise) to what's available from other auto manufacturers if they expect to increase their sales.
whisp
DUMP GEN. MOTORS FROM DOW? AND THEN FORD AND THEN CHRYSLER AND THEN, AND THEN, AND THEN UNTIL THE NEW EXCITING GOVERNMENT WILL CONFISCATE THEM AND WE WILL HAVE THE BEGINNING OF A REAL COMMUNISTIC SYSTEM. THE CURRENT CROP OF HARVARD TRAINED WALL STREET WIZARDS CANNOT SEE THAT THEIR CAREERS ARE RAPIDLY COMING TO AN END. SO, YES! TAKE IT OFF THE DOW AND LETS GET THIS THING OVER.
George L. Gettemuller
No, it will come back soon. and it is needed in the average. lossing GM will through the average off and long term averages useless.
TomK
There is much more at stake here than just who is listed on the Dow. Dropping GM would just help keep the snow ball rolling down hill toward a possible failure of the company. Continuing talk like this will help make it so. You might as well print up 2.5 million pink slips with your next article recommending the dropping of GM.
vanderson
The ongoing DOW component shuffle is investor deception.
B Scott
Advice to the American public...if you put a GM or Ford in your driveway, their,d be no talk of dumping GM.The public is responsible for much of their own demise.
John
Well, the government and the boys across the river have done a fine job in in assisting in the auto makers destruction. Now lets see how they live with it's demise. It's time to STOP feeding money into this black hole that they have created!
Loren R.
ELIZABETH: WHY ARE POLICTICANS (DEMOCRAT-PELOSI) HOLDING CLOSED DOOR MEETINGS WTH AUTO EXECS AND UNION LEADERS? YOU ARE EXACTLY RIGHT; A BLIND MAN ON FLYING HORSE AT 100 YARDS COULD HAVE SEEN THIS COMING IN THE AUTO INDUSTRY! WHERE DO THE BAILOUTS STOP? WHO HAS THE COURAGE TO SAY NO AND LET THE CHIPS FALL WHERE THEY MAY? COMPANY BAILOUTS ARE WRONG AND THEY NEED TO STOP! PEOPLE NEED TO BE HELD ACCOUNTABLE FOR THEIR ACTIONS...EXECS,UNION LEADERS AND POLITICIANS! MICHIGAN IS A TOTAL DISASTER...UNDER DEMOCRATIC RULE FOR DECADES AND THEYT JUST KEEP RE-ELECTING THESE DUNDERHEADS... THE EFFORT TO BAIL OUT THESE CLOWNS IS A TOTAL WASTE OF TIME AND MONEY...LET THE AUCTION BEGIN!
Gary Driscoll
The shifting indices are yet additional frauds that are foisted upon the public. Sure the stock market historically keeps going up--we remove the losers from what is reported. That makes the Dow a totally meaningless measure of the value of investing. GM is an extremely valid indicator of the current investment climate in the US.
aaron
Why not replace GM with the company most responsible for it's current problems; the UAW, technically not a company but they are the biggest 'competition' for any success GM might hope to have.
Eric W
Dump GM from the Dow? I don’t think so. I contend that it DOES represent The US economy. Removing it from the list is akin to calculating grade point average by only using courses with a B or above, for example. GM is a poorly run, inefficient giant and it should be there because it contributes mightily to the condition of this market.
JeezeLiz
Jeeze Liz Always got the ideas. I like that idea - because if I get your point ? it's taking and making others look bad. REAL neat suggestion. Wonder how that process happens.