Comments on: Top Housing Expert Calls Housing Bottom http://emac.blogs.foxbusiness.com/2008/09/12/top-housing-expert-calls-housing-bottom/ Fri, 20 Nov 2009 19:57:36 -0500 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.5.2 hourly 1 By: TK http://emac.blogs.foxbusiness.com/2008/09/12/top-housing-expert-calls-housing-bottom/comment-page-2/#comment-3204 TK Mon, 15 Sep 2008 23:45:56 +0000 http://emac.blogs.foxbusiness.com/?p=170#comment-3204 I watched the RE prices in CA go up up up in 2005, 2006, 07 and now flatline in 08. The whole time I rented, lived in a studio, and listened to all my friends implore me to go in halfsies with them on a Hawaii spec home, a Las Vegas condo, or a Miami CondoTel. Something told me that this was not right, so I stayed put, kept accumulating cash in measly 4% CDs, and holding tight. And took the abuse. Now I have 150,000 in cash, 780 Credit, recession proof job, and am floating around offers of 75-100K less than asking, on dream homes. Time for Vulture buying baby, I LOVE IT. Cash is king, I see the look of agony when the realtor literally BEGS me me to make an offer on her newly re-priced 5bd 1914 Tudor, and I underbid it at 100K, and they try to counter offer. This is market I've been waiting for. Remember the stories in San Fran, when 20 people would overbid for a property, and the arrogant seller would ask everyone to "write me a letter explaining why I should sell this condo to you"? God I hope that person re-levered up to an variable interest only mega loan. Woo hoo!!! (PS I am totally gloating here, chickens coming home to roost as one infamous demagogue once said) I watched the RE prices in CA go up up up in 2005, 2006, 07 and now flatline in 08. The whole time I rented, lived in a studio, and listened to all my friends implore me to go in halfsies with them on a Hawaii spec home, a Las Vegas condo, or a Miami CondoTel. Something told me that this was not right, so I stayed put, kept accumulating cash in measly 4% CDs, and holding tight. And took the abuse. Now I have 150,000 in cash, 780 Credit, recession proof job, and am floating around offers of 75-100K less than asking, on dream homes. Time for Vulture buying baby, I LOVE IT. Cash is king, I see the look of agony when the realtor literally BEGS me me to make an offer on her newly re-priced 5bd 1914 Tudor, and I underbid it at 100K, and they try to counter offer. This is market I’ve been waiting for. Remember the stories in San Fran, when 20 people would overbid for a property, and the arrogant seller would ask everyone to “write me a letter explaining why I should sell this condo to you”? God I hope that person re-levered up to an variable interest only mega loan. Woo hoo!!! (PS I am totally gloating here, chickens coming home to roost as one infamous demagogue once said)

]]> By: Vegas Mess 702 http://emac.blogs.foxbusiness.com/2008/09/12/top-housing-expert-calls-housing-bottom/comment-page-2/#comment-3199 Vegas Mess 702 Mon, 15 Sep 2008 19:40:42 +0000 http://emac.blogs.foxbusiness.com/?p=170#comment-3199 correction... 54% loss of value correction… 54% loss of value

]]> By: Vegas Mess 702 http://emac.blogs.foxbusiness.com/2008/09/12/top-housing-expert-calls-housing-bottom/comment-page-2/#comment-3198 Vegas Mess 702 Mon, 15 Sep 2008 18:59:11 +0000 http://emac.blogs.foxbusiness.com/?p=170#comment-3198 I'm in Las Vegas and I know first hand that we have another 15 - 20% to go before the bottom. I estimate that the bottom will hit in Q4 of 2009 or Q1 of 2010 after we go through another ~1 million foreclosures. People are going through some of these scenarios... 1. Folks are walking away because of the huge losses in home values, and that when they do the math, they realize that its better for them long-term to stop the bleeding now. 2. Mortgages are resetting into new terms that home owners are not able to sustain. 3. Increasing unemployment / entry level recession causes reduced spending ---> downward spiral into deeper recession, more unemployment 4. Reduced access to credit means defaults go up as people can't use revolving credit to juggle their financial problems. I'm about to file a personal chapter 7 bankruptcy for 1.2 million.... this will be the first month that I have ever been deliquent in my 12 year credit history... I have a FICO of 774 at the moment. At age 30, it's hard to swallow that I was so careless / greedy when it came to purchasing real estate. Diversification would have saved me. Luckly I'm young enough to recover from this, i'm single and no kids... small business owner. I have learned a very important financial lesson about too much of a good thing, isn't a good thing. Here are my details... 1 rental home purchased with Interest only loan for $360,000 (foreclosure sold for $199,500 next door) 1 primary home purchase with Interest only loan for $590,000 (foreclosure sold for $309,000 1 block away) Total real estate purchases = $950,000 Total real estate losses = $441,500 = 46% decrease in real estate investment I'm paying $6,200/mo in Interest only loan payments for a total of ... (-$1550/mo rental) $ 74,400 / year OR $372,000 / over the next 5 years Over the next 7 - 10 years I doubt that home values will come back to this level. At some point, the home builders who have purchased so much land will continue the track homes that they have barely started. When the market picks back up, homeowners will be competing against builder specials and upgrades so plan on keeping your home for a real long time. Carefully review your own situtation and determine what is the "best business decision" for you long term. God Bless the USA, a country that will allow me to recover from this huge mistake to start over again. I’m in Las Vegas and I know first hand that we have another 15 – 20% to go before the bottom. I estimate that the bottom will hit in Q4 of 2009 or Q1 of 2010 after we go through another ~1 million foreclosures.

People are going through some of these scenarios…

1. Folks are walking away because of the huge losses in home values, and that when they do the math, they realize that its better for them long-term to stop the bleeding now.

2. Mortgages are resetting into new terms that home owners are not able to sustain.

3. Increasing unemployment / entry level recession causes reduced spending —> downward spiral into deeper recession, more unemployment

4. Reduced access to credit means defaults go up as people can’t use revolving credit to juggle their financial problems.

I’m about to file a personal chapter 7 bankruptcy for 1.2 million…. this will be the first month that I have ever been deliquent in my 12 year credit history… I have a FICO of 774 at the moment.

At age 30, it’s hard to swallow that I was so careless / greedy when it came to purchasing real estate. Diversification would have saved me. Luckly I’m young enough to recover from this, i’m single and no kids… small business owner. I have learned a very important financial lesson about too much of a good thing, isn’t a good thing.

Here are my details…

1 rental home purchased with Interest only loan for $360,000 (foreclosure sold for $199,500 next door)
1 primary home purchase with Interest only loan for $590,000 (foreclosure sold for $309,000 1 block away)

Total real estate purchases = $950,000
Total real estate losses = $441,500

= 46% decrease in real estate investment

I’m paying $6,200/mo in Interest only loan payments for a total of … (-$1550/mo rental)

$ 74,400 / year OR

$372,000 / over the next 5 years

Over the next 7 – 10 years I doubt that home values will come back to this level. At some point, the home builders who have purchased so much land will continue the track homes that they have barely started. When the market picks back up, homeowners will be competing against builder specials and upgrades so plan on keeping your home for a real long time.

Carefully review your own situtation and determine what is the “best business decision” for you long term.

God Bless the USA, a country that will allow me to recover from this huge mistake to start over again.

]]> By: Angela Adams http://emac.blogs.foxbusiness.com/2008/09/12/top-housing-expert-calls-housing-bottom/comment-page-2/#comment-3189 Angela Adams Mon, 15 Sep 2008 15:04:20 +0000 http://emac.blogs.foxbusiness.com/?p=170#comment-3189 I would like to know when the guide lines for loaning money changed and under who? I would like to see a program on the high rollers who were over these large companies that are in trouble? What is their politics? I belive these people have indangered our country as much if not more so than the the terrorist. There should be some way to make these folks pay for their failures. The people who put their money in these jokers care should have some recourse. I would like to know when the guide lines for loaning money changed and under who? I would like to see a program on the high rollers who were over these large companies that are in trouble? What is their politics? I belive these people have indangered our country as much if not more so than the the terrorist. There should be some way to make these folks pay for their failures. The people who put their money in these jokers care should have some recourse.

]]> By: Greedom http://emac.blogs.foxbusiness.com/2008/09/12/top-housing-expert-calls-housing-bottom/comment-page-2/#comment-3187 Greedom Mon, 15 Sep 2008 15:01:44 +0000 http://emac.blogs.foxbusiness.com/?p=170#comment-3187 Sell at @.86 typo included for 2.86 buh Bye Lehman good riddance. Yea to free markets... I'm going to go have a smoke on Milton's grave. Sell at @.86

typo included for 2.86

buh Bye Lehman

good riddance.

Yea to free markets…

I’m going to go have a smoke on Milton’s grave.

]]>