Top Housing Expert Calls Housing Bottom

I watched the RE prices in CA go up up up in 2005, 2006, 07 and now flatline in 08. The whole time I rented, lived in a studio, and listened to all my friends implore me to go in halfsies with them on a Hawaii spec home, a Las Vegas condo, or a Miami CondoTel. Something told me that this was not right, so I stayed put, kept accumulating cash in measly 4% CDs, and holding tight. And took the abuse. Now I have 150,000 in cash, 780 Credit, recession proof job, and am floating around offers of 75-100K less than asking, on dream homes. Time for Vulture buying baby, I LOVE IT. Cash is king, I see the look of agony when the realtor literally BEGS me me to make an offer on her newly re-priced 5bd 1914 Tudor, and I underbid it at 100K, and they try to counter offer. This is market I've been waiting for. Remember the stories in San Fran, when 20 people would overbid for a property, and the arrogant seller would ask everyone to "write me a letter explaining why I should sell this condo to you"? God I hope that person re-levered up to an variable interest only mega loan. Woo hoo!!! (PS I am totally gloating here, chickens coming home to roost as one infamous demagogue once said)

correction... 54% loss of value

I'm in Las Vegas and I know first hand that we have another 15 - 20% to go before the bottom. I estimate that the bottom will hit in Q4 of 2009 or Q1 of 2010 after we go through another ~1 million foreclosures. People are going through some of these scenarios... 1. Folks are walking away because of the huge losses in home values, and that when they do the math, they realize that its better for them long-term to stop the bleeding now. 2. Mortgages are resetting into new terms that home owners are not able to sustain. 3. Increasing unemployment / entry level recession causes reduced spending ---> downward spiral into deeper recession, more unemployment 4. Reduced access to credit means defaults go up as people can't use revolving credit to juggle their financial problems. I'm about to file a personal chapter 7 bankruptcy for 1.2 million.... this will be the first month that I have ever been deliquent in my 12 year credit history... I have a FICO of 774 at the moment. At age 30, it's hard to swallow that I was so careless / greedy when it came to purchasing real estate. Diversification would have saved me. Luckly I'm young enough to recover from this, i'm single and no kids... small business owner. I have learned a very important financial lesson about too much of a good thing, isn't a good thing. Here are my details... 1 rental home purchased with Interest only loan for $360,000 (foreclosure sold for $199,500 next door) 1 primary home purchase with Interest only loan for $590,000 (foreclosure sold for $309,000 1 block away) Total real estate purchases = $950,000 Total real estate losses = $441,500 = 46% decrease in real estate investment I'm paying $6,200/mo in Interest only loan payments for a total of ... (-$1550/mo rental) $ 74,400 / year OR $372,000 / over the next 5 years Over the next 7 - 10 years I doubt that home values will come back to this level. At some point, the home builders who have purchased so much land will continue the track homes that they have barely started. When the market picks back up, homeowners will be competing against builder specials and upgrades so plan on keeping your home for a real long time. Carefully review your own situtation and determine what is the "best business decision" for you long term. God Bless the USA, a country that will allow me to recover from this huge mistake to start over again.

I would like to know when the guide lines for loaning money changed and under who? I would like to see a program on the high rollers who were over these large companies that are in trouble? What is their politics? I belive these people have indangered our country as much if not more so than the the terrorist. There should be some way to make these folks pay for their failures. The people who put their money in these jokers care should have some recourse.

Sell at @.86 typo included for 2.86 buh Bye Lehman good riddance. Yea to free markets... I'm going to go have a smoke on Milton's grave.

Greedom, get off the meth. Doing something to stop the foreclosures seems like the best solution. Why can't the banks be forced to cap their rates on first and second mortgages? If the cap was at 8% and the loans currently above that were adjusted, the boost to the economy and to consumer confidence would be undeniable. Plus the taxpayers wouldn't be footing the bill.

Genius is simply the ability to integrate, and of course often to explicate a formal system of which to allow for common denominators to show up to act as a hub for such integration (Look to Latin for Genius - Romans used it to refer to the hub of a wheel). On that, Genius is looming on MacDonald, all this data, certain passion to touch the sun, e.g. expel truth - hopefully her wings won't melt before we get the BOOK ! So far, it's been almost one to one on evaluation in the MacDonald Blog, but I hope to see more akin to William Blakes statement "All read the bible day and night, most read black where I read white" I hope to see some of the white spaces to come. Maybe those insights are held back at risk of error, or respect - or responsibility to not spook havoc... Confidence is everything these days ! heh - I feel like that's becoming a strange archetypal fixture in my personalized model of the global economy I fit into ..... Confidence from the bottom UP on the dollar and confidence from the top down on 'gettin' that golden triple A eval, or facing panic sellof - cough - AIG anyone ?

I think when Alexis Glick stated she and her husband came out of a Target with a $700 bill - and they didn't know what they bought ? This ABOUT sums up Bear Stearns, Lehman - MANY others to come - thinking - wow - what'd we buy ? Didn't we LOOK at the price tags and check the value ? Then again Alexis's gripe wasn't that they got a cart full of junk. That was never revealed, so, maybe it's closer that the Lehman's and the Bear Stearns of the world didn't even ASK - What did we just spend $700 on. Maybe I should have posted this in Alexis's blog - That alone probably pegged this not for publishing, oh well. words, they just come forward !

On the brink of the next Bank of America acquisition... Do you think people will really want to hear anymore ? read anymore ? or ? would they settle for ALL the balance sheets from FDIC/SEC 'on the table' investigations - fully spelled out as a PDF on wikileaks ? world is changing. information - is the most valuable asset eh ? iddddn't it ? (voice of Dizzy from Bob the Builder)

I'm suggesting Bank of America is the formal collecting unit for all the fallout through KNOWING take down - Enron / Andersen style - of unsaid entities. Said entities will surely follow on wikileaks. if FBN has to extract out any website references, that's fine. sadly - corporatism has backlashed and regulated itself. Oh my - let's see the damages from this storm.

Buy at $2.85 ! lol

BAC is the laundering unit here. I can't discount the irony, odds, and obscurity that the two leading architects on the War on Terror - Larry Di Rita and General Tommy Franks - BOTH ? in the middle of wartime - remember, sr. architects ? both decide to go join Bank of America. And here comes Bank of America in the end run - she's got the lead ... it's Bank of America by 2 inches, wait... here comes" you see ? The FHA Bill in Jan ? Was orig. named using Bank of America. BAC's - my god - 2 billion DOWN for 300 billion in mortgages ? Sure in the 1970's I've learned BAC has helped CW along, but - my god. What a deal... and to have the US tax payers ? cover a 300 Billion ? amazing how the figure is the same isn't it ? just pay for that ? most of the tax payers won't ever comprehend it. So, this to me is Savings and Loan II - only BETTER laundered, BETTER organized, and all in all - a far better payout. By the time the chips fall ? Tax payers can ask themselves, should I spend my money on food, or driving to the election booth.

I have a GREAT idea MacDonald ! You buy a farm in Upstate NY - you buy a copy of FunnyFarm the movie with Chevy Chase ! No, just saying, I do hope after you expend what you expend into researching and seeking a better understanding of what society we live in, esp. from an economic standpoint, you take some time back, do nothing, THEN - let the broader themes settle in and write a book - whether it's a breakthrough in creative development for 3rd graders ! all through analogy to how free markets flourish ! (ok, that one is off the wall) OR - just your insights from the best of all the best you've had opportunity to work with. Go Western Mass for the farm ! jk Martha was up there. Different people you two, Martha Stewart and yourself. Knowingly or not she got caught up into something, I would wager just about anything, you are the kind of person that stands up - regardless of WHO is in the room and says 'no, no, there is something wrong here, X Y and Z.' eeks - I'm skidding all over the road this AM ! I just KNEW I shouldn't have taken an anti-histamine this early, those chlor-malaete or whatever they are OTC anti-histamines, - augh ! I'm loopy I do say. Oh well - no doubt the housing bottom we've NOT hit hit Lehman in part, and surely others to come. My big question is - why the big landfall on shoddy loan evaluation process ? that contributed to this ? I mean, why ? out of the blue - would say - CountryWide (heh, wouldn't it be halarious if part of Lehman's fall was tied to BOA's CountryWide unit, what a mess their side to sort out ["Ya see here Frank, we can cancel out those two values, because BAC bought CW AND Lehman, CW's losses to Lehman counter..... etc"]) let's start giving out loans to anyone - no money down - no interest. Why ? who would do that ? unless they KNEW Paulson would be there with a catch bucket at the end for the drippoff ?

Does it help CEO of Enron was #2 user of Bush campaign Jet in 2000 makes you wonder if this ENTIRE fall down here - IS savings and Loan II would explain why bush HAD to get in ! come on - this guy isn't a leader. He was brought in to grease the chute - to loot the pensions - loot the mortgages when possible - heck - Probably 3 trillion is GONE. Where'd it all go ? yeah, you know. This screwup wasn't accidental is my point. Nor was it incompetence. It was surgical. Paulson is a key player.

Now as to article: All respect MacDonald ! But I don't think it's fair or responsible to speculate on the bottom. We've just gone through this so many times. Besides, top Treasury advocates ALWAYS state confidence rules all. And we all now perception is the key. That's why Fox is even on the air... to assist in that perception the world is ending in terror so you go take that CountryWide loan advertised in between the world ending pilot series on Fox News ( a 24 / 7 show too ! one heckuva a pilot tv series). A great deal of sense of hope in this nation has been lost. Enron was a formal dye marker for these gene. I think the better of us understand Enron isn't alone here for the Enron clones we're starting to see. This time, it wasn't a localized looting of the pension funds. It was obfuscated through as MacDonald likes to put it - Daisy Chained Toxic Waste. This was Enron on steroids. I'm content to call it Savings and Loan Part II or, aka, the looting of the US mortgage sector. The bottom ? of the housing market ? are you kidding me ? you sat there with Muriel and speculated it would be the year 2015 - MAYBE before recovery. I happen to agree. your insights on the resets coming from 2003- the 5 year no money downers - no tax ! no payments for 5 years - THOSE are going to add up to NASTY Q3, Q4, Q1/2/3/4 2009 - 2010 - 2011 - 2012 write downs. bottom ? Someone probably thought they were at the bottom, only to move over 15 miles to the Marianna Trench to discover - wow - what the heck IS that thing !

Yeah yeah yeah none of my posts were fit to publish. this beats $125 an hour.

Most of the employees of Lehman if you ask me - AND some of their friends belong in prison Hey, maybe there will be a job (fox news word of the day from Moody ) 'Surge'. Come on Fox, you just LOVE that I used the word Surge again, I know that's why you love hurricanes so much... You get to footprint your branded 'Troop Surge' - Hey Fox, Relational Alegebra- which is what I use to chop up your daily feed word by word, doesn't lie. Hey, it wasn't easy to find a daily transcript (including the commercials). Maybe there will be a job surge on SEC and FBI ? lol unlikely. With all these signoffs on the law - It's hard to even expect criminal accountability in some of the days on-goings. I still ask and who will bail out the US ? The workers who will do nothing BUT work for the rest of their life and pay taxes - all attending to the hand me down personas offered through commercial consumerism, you know Disney identities ! to Sprite to a BMW with the Rims ! I question whether the US tax payer can even bail this nation out at this point. And at that point, enter Bush's Amnesty for Illegals program. Gee, 20 million people BAM - instant tax payers, sure... I can see it. Then again the Statue of Liberty does welcome all - and few people know, the original Statue of Liberty was an Islamic woman wearing a face cover. Forget the unexamined life is not worth living from Socrates. Try - the unexamined nation state is not worth living IN ! seems to be fitting words. I'd bet sooner than later MacDonald - you'll find enough data to bring intellectual catharsis to understanding just who's lying and how bad from www.wikileaks.org up and coming releases. It's a new world. NewsCorp is cutting the checks today, but the truth is the REAL check that is to be paid out to the entire species having access through the global media share that exists. Sorry Rupert, wiki's servers are out of reach from your friends at the White House to rescue you. It seems nationalism still has one last purpose before it can't even prop up a valid currency. No currency, no nation state ! The REAL housing crisis in the US isn't for the investors... it's not even for the home owners... it's for those that are asking some basic questions such as - ? Now that this admin has made it clear - as Cheney says - "Islamic fundamtalist terrorists WILL get a nuclear device and it will go off in a US city" ? Gee I'd say - the citizens aren't under attack anymore from a formal nation state. So much for Geneva convenction, but citizens should ask ? Gee - the only thing I needed my nation state for before was - some Curb service socialism - protection from military threats, well I guess nuclear weapons kind of upped THAT ante ? eh ? By the time most people realize the items in their home are from Asia their IRA AND Pension was looted (Enron style - this ALL fits btw) that over 3,000 bridges in their country are unsafe according to Civil Engineers, requiring a 1.3 trillion needed funding to fix ? Oh now, it's not those pesky terrorists taking the lives of our citizens ! it's GRAVITY ! War on Gravity ! right most people haven't figured out this 'global economy' aspect when plugged into prior nation state living. I feel like those that have ? have in the last few years ? looted and left America for dead on a highway bridge in need of repair. Hint: as to what's happening... Keep an eye on Bank of America's next acquisition. BoE, BoC, BoA, Wolfy probably should have maintained better privacy in his relationships... I do respect Wolfowitz's background though, Johns Hopkins is to me on the saner side than Princeton even when evaluating the psyches of alumni.

I'll put it this way. I've never been to Vegas. I probably never will. In studying the philosophy of money, I did discern that since Money does require a common shared belief and faith to bring fruition to it's true purpose - the bring liquidity to commerce interchange and certainly it takes us past barter. In this, I figure Las Vegas might just be the most religious center in the US. Point being, money, the belief and faith in money even surpasses religion. You can have two fundamentalists of different religions in a room - both staring at 100 Million (might as well be Billion these days) in USD... Both agree on something. Wall Street is the new Vegas it seems. What happens on Wall Street though - thanks to www.wikileaks.org no longer STAYS on Wall Street. Gotta hand it to you Liz MacDonald, if I were a murder suspect and you were Columbo ? I'd have to say - you've been right on the trail - but just haven't integrated the TRUE organized crime here in financials. In vegas if you cheat, you might get a back room salon session adding some color to your face- On Wall Street ? The real loss is - this breach on integrity to our society - as with Savings and Loan I - is that it reminds us, that the group of people that get together to instigate a bear run ? probably ? all in all ? are equally if not more dangerous to society than a serial killer. Yet ? Ah come on, they dress nice ! Let em go, they're not bad people - they're not out killing people - they're just robbing their pensions so they can die from lack of health care they'd otherwise be able to afford ? riiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiight ? Welp - least you come across with integrity ms. MacDonald - that's a sign potential for better days ahead. It's unnerving to see - even as you've pointed out - CEO after CEO coming out saying ONE thing, and next thing ya know ? days later it's 180 what they said ! Somehow the people who were heading to Vegas to play blackjack and card count - ended up on Wall Street. AGAIN, I will point out, it is of great irony I see that Dr. Thorpe - the MIT mathematics professor who first brought 'card counting' to light in the 1950's moved on to his next project years after - the very first 'hedge fund'. In the meantime, anyone who DOES have a real life, real work, real meaningful values, real friends, family - hey, you have a wonderful experience of the great day you make each day (that includes you MacDonald!- and hopefully A LOT of our species). Anyone who has been knowingly trying to seek personal gain at the expense of others unfairly - guess what ? Hell is best described as realizing at your last moment, that life was indeed integrated, that you didn't HAVE to live as if you were alone, and that for the most part ? you wasted your chances to really make a mark in this real world - and real universe that will reflect your true nature. MAybe try again next time ? Hell WOULD be realizing one is alone, as if they lived alone, like say -some of these CEO's cashing in, moving out, or stepping down... golden parachute exits ! when they didn't have to. My god, to miss out on life, while you were here, that would be the worst possible penalty I can think of ! And the best parts of life ? it goes on forever, there IS a balance, even the animals and plants live in this balance... Always there, and yet ? some yayhoo wants to make 8 million more this year, so they cheat the fund, but some yayhoo next door in the building wants 3 million more, so... they pick up trash loan products, onward... Until everyone cashes in for what they think is 'their money' (Sorry Jonathon, you have a lot of growing up to do [FBN Jonathon]) - only to never stop and think - hey, this stuff I think is mine ? is ultimately given value by a participating - FAIR community of people who share my belief too. I'm not even sure there is a need for religion in America come to think of it. We have money. But - US currency is hard to invest faith into these days. Maybe that's why all the jebus tripe is so hot, the dollar is lacking, therefore, people have turned to their second god, jesus.

What ? are people actually watching Fox Business at night ? the Paid TV Advertisements encouraging you to go out and cash in on the foreclosure market ! Increase those home sales ! heh Funny thing is ? Some days ? My database returns clips from show content in the DAYTIME (I wrote a generic app uses SQL server - just helps do word use aggregation etc, that Alexis said Lehman 19 times, etc) and I do say - it's as if the daytime programming ? isn't any different than the nighttime paid TV advertisements on FBN. What the hecks goin' on over there folks ? make up your mind, is it ALL one big ad ? lol sometimes it sucks to be smarter than you.

The truth is - the poor - unless they drop liqour & smokes and head out to explore what 'capital' means... will be the sucker chump bait used to catch these big fish cashins before federalized socialized cleanup on Aisle Bear Stearns or Aisle Lehman. It's might peculiar Bank of America is here again... to benefit - on firesale prices - all cuddly wuddly backed by the fed AWFULLY peculiar... Let's keep an eye on where Bank of America goes next. 2010 - Wow - Bank of America has 7 of the failed financials now ! probably. Bush and Co will cash in on Savings and Loan part II LONG after the damage is done. Some interesting employees over there at BAC.

GEe Rome is burning let me talk about how well the spring flowers are going to come out in the garden - ALL speculation of course... This yayhoo is on crack we have 180 million people in negative savings 75,000 job losses per month since jan. RECORD deficit and debt. So, who's buying the houses ? The Jonathons and Alexis's on Fox News - heading to clean up on the loss of others ? I know what's making the real estate market look better it's all the parasites out there buying foreclosures. I loved that line on the McCain Obama press interview from the woman interviewer - she let it slip "and what about for those people out there that actually still work, or have to work ? " yeah right hey, why even market this mess, the dumb working class tax payers who don't know any better will be GLAD to continue to just pay taxes to cover these fallouts. Why is any of this even news ? Don't we KNOW slavery is still alive and well in the US ?

this is baloney. We have our very nice 5bedroom 3 bath home for sale in a great school district in North Raleigh NC. This area of the country didn't start to feel the housing Market mayhem until about a yr. ago. We are priced near the mid-range for a hone like ours and in 3 weeks haven't had one view. NOT ONE! Other homes have sold recently, less sq ft. for what people paid for them 3-5 yrs. ago. We don't have to sell, so if we don't get a good offer, we won't. But, unless you are willing to take a loss or NO earn, your house won't sell right now. If your house is worth more than 400,000.00 It ain't gonna sell right now. Sorry, but you guys need to stop looking only at numbers, and star talking to the real folks that live in the HUGE middle class. Until you do, neither your network, or Mr. Cavuto are the least bit dependable, or believable. And, I am a big FOXNEWS fan. You know, the majority of this nation is made up and made strong by hard working middle class folks. Folks that work 10-12 hrs a day, come home eat dinner, watch the news after the kids are in bed, and save our time for family things. We don't get involved because we're to darn tired. We don't take part in the polls because we're in bed, or relaxing when they call us and we have doubts about both candidates at this stage of the political game. It's difficult for us to vote against a good man like John McCain, we like Gov Palin, even through we don't agree with her, and we hate what the press did to Sen. Clinton and how unfairly Obama has treated her. I am waiting for the debates to decide who I'll vote for as is most of my family and friends as we are not moved by either candidate. We realize the economy is the important issue, but also understand things like the war, healthcare, taxes and illegal aliens are a huge part of the economy puzzle. When the men running for our President decide to speak out on those issues in a clear way, we will decide to who to vote for. That may help the economy. If the wrong guy gets in, then we will continue to watch our penny's, not trust the market or the banks, and steer clear from going to the DR. unless we have no choice because who can afford the co-payments? All this is tied up in the housing market, how its handled and how much of our money they spend to bail them out of a jam, when they should be sending these guys to jail. OH, we get it, and you will know that Nov. 5th....I hope.

This guy is using a model from the past that has no revelance to the present. The econonomy is far worse that the government is admitting to. The cost of living is skyrocketing and wages are stagnated. With the lending institutions tightening up loan requirements, housing prices have to fall much further to be affordable. The USA is in a Deflationary Contraction. We are NOWHERE near a bottom........ .

dave young, I think you are correct. In the upper Midwest where I live houses have not decreased in value anywhere near the falls in Cal, Fl, Nev, Az, etc. And---I think this guy is correct--we are near a bottom in housing.

This silly statement by a "top housing expert" reminds me of the pres. of the National Assoc. of Realtors saying in 2005 that housing prices were going to keep going up. Ha ! Later news reports showed that his house in the D.C. area was unsold for over 12 months after he put it up for sale. The criminals who ran the finance and mortgage industry for the last 10 years should be given life sentences w/o parole for messing with people so much, which they did just to get their huge bonuses. As an attorney and M.B.A, I am completely sick and tired of people in responsible positions taking advantage of the middle class to enrich themselves.