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  • August 5, 2008 11:26 AM EDT by Elizabeth MacDonald

    Head Fakes Aside, What to Expect from Merrill Lynch

    John Thain, having taken over the wreckage left by former chief executive Stanley O'Neal at Merrill Lynch, is now out defending himself against criticism of the nine statements he's made since December,  that Merrill Lynch was adequately capitalized--despite having to subsequently return to the markets to raise capital.

    Be careful of these statements, as well as anything said in the future. Thain's defense of his comments comes after Merrill Lynch (MER) shocked the markets on July 29 when it announced after the market's close that it planned to book a huge pre-tax $5.7 bn writedown in its upcoming third quarter from its toxic securities and hedges with bond insurers, plus raise another $8.5 bn in new stock.

    That news came just over a week after Merrill reported $4.9 bn in second quarter losses due to $9.4 bn in writedowns for the period. Wall Street had expected lesser sums here, $1.8 bn in losses due to $6 bn in writedowns.

    When Merrill announced its second quarter results, Thain said: "Right now we believe we are in a very comfortable spot in terms of our capital." Investors who piled into the shares at that time at $31, thinking the worst was over might feel justifiably feel blindsided.

    "Any of the firm's statements concerning its balance sheet over the past year have simply not matched with subsequent actions by the company," says Richard Bove of Ladenburg Thalmann, a top banking and brokerage analyst and one of the sharpest pencils on Wall Street.

    The day Merrill announced the upcoming third quarter whopper, it also announced that it sold $30 bn in distressed debt, called collateralized debt obligations, for just $6.7 bn to a unit of Lone Star Funds, a Dallas private equity firm.

    However, Lone Star only has to pony up $1.7 bn to seal the deal, borrowing the rest, or 75%, from Merrill. As we first reported to you on July 29, ("Merrill's Latest Misfire," and later, "The Buzz About Citi's Future Writedowns"), Lone Star is effectively putting up just 25% of the deal, about six cents on the dollar, for the gross value of the CDOs. That means the implied gross value of the CDOs went from 36 cents on the dollar to 22 cents to just over a nickel in a matter of two weeks.

    Also, Lone Star's loan is backed only by the CDO assets Merrill sold to the vulture fund. What happens if that collateral starts to flop in value? "One might assume that if these mortgages [backing these CDOs] decline further in value, that Merrill might risk a default on its $5.0 billion loan. Thus, it is hard to argue that these loans are off Merrill's books," says Bove.

    In explaining his past assurances about Merrill's capital, Thain told CNBC's Maria Bartiromo that investors misunderstood him. "When we said we weren't going to raise more capital, we said we were adequately capitalized at that point in time," he said.

    But did Thain really say each and every time that "we were adequately capitalized at that point in time?" Not quite.

    Here's a sample of what Thain has said. For a full rundown, go to this link from Reuters, http://in.reuters.com/article/governmentFilingsNews/idINN2824127720080729:

    "Today I can say that we will not need additional funds. These problems are behind us. We will not return to the market." (March 8, 2008)

    "We have more capital than we need, so we can say to the market that we don't need more injections. We can confirm that we have tackled the problem." (March 16, 2008)

    "We have plenty of capital going forward, and we don't need to come back into the equity market. The goal is to maintain our current ratings. No more capital raising; I'm sure we have enough capital." (April 4, 2008)

    "We deliberately raised more capital than we lost last year ... we believe that will allow us to not have to go back to the equity market in the foreseeable future." (April 8, 2008)

    Investors are facing massive dilution. After racing to recapitalize over the last 10 months, it now appears that Merrill Lynch has eight preferred stock issues outstanding, Bove notes. The after-tax dividend cost of these new issues is estimated to be approximately $440 million per year, he adds.

    However, Merrill Lynch has no plans to cut its dividend. "The dividend on the common stock is clearly a burden to the company," Bove says in his research report. "With an estimated 1.365 million shares outstanding it now costs close to $500 million per quarter," adding "there seems to be little merit in continuing to make this expenditure." Whether Merrill cuts its dividend, further angering investors, remains to be seen.

    So what to expect from Merrill going forward?

    Bove says Merrill's 2008 loss per share estimate "has been increased to $7.87 per share from $5.31 per share," and his "2009 estimate of profit has been lowered to $2.40 per share from $3.03 per share." Bove has also lowered the target price on the stock to $25 per share from $30 per share and has kept his sell rating on the stock.

    Bove figures that by the end of the year, Merrill's book value will be near $21 per share and its tangible book value will be $17 per share. "The biggest issue for this firm, however, continues to be, 'where will the new profits come from?'" Bove notes. "The answer to this question remains difficult to discern since most of the key revenue drivers of the past few years do not look very strong at all."

     

Jonathan

Perhaps what Merrill Lynch needs is a few taxpayer bail-out dollars. After what we have seen recently, what's a few more $Billion. Maybe that would help these poor investment bankers. Thanks!

August 6, 2008 at 2:32 am

DrDetroit

All in all Merrill Lynch looks likes they are trying to prevent a panic run on sale of their stock. Why else lie about Q3 losses ? Or worse, if they are THAT far off on Q3 estimates MER ? They're probably less useful than a competent liar.

August 5, 2008 at 7:54 pm

DrDetroit

from article: “We have plenty of capital going forward, and we don’t need to come back into the equity market. The goal is to maintain our current ratings. No more capital raising; I’m sure we have enough capital.” (April 4, 2008) YIKES ! When people go "I'm sure ? " it bottom line beings in the entire polarity here - which includes the anti-thesis, I'm NOT sure we have enough. This was the hidden facet on Fox News anti-abortion diamond, they obsessed on Terri Schiavo - all the while ? Whether you realize it or not, but if you state or speculate on where life ends ? You're bringing in the polarized kitchen sink issue of where life begins too. So, if MER is saying we're SURE we have enough ? eeks - who asked for the 'assurance' ? Nervous there Thain ? All this connivery makes me twice think Paulson's stutter now.

August 5, 2008 at 7:16 pm

DrDetroit

from article: The biggest issue for this firm, however, continues to be, ‘where will the new profits come from?’” Bove notes. “The answer to this question remains difficult to discern since most of the key revenue drivers of the past few years do not look very strong at all.” Gee - sounds like MY life. I do wonder what would happen if I ran my life like BS or MER or CW ? Why ? I'd be in the supermarket veggie aisle and I'd start with saying to everyone I see that I know "hiiiiiiii... how arrrrrre you" and then when they ask me I send off this phony "Greeeat, just great, everything is fine"\ I'd say if someone volunteers a point out of the blue SEVERAL times ? hey, the entire polarized subject is on their mind, so if a child volunteers out of the blue to mom at several points through the day "Mom ? I didn't steal any cookies yesterday" I'd say ? Someone has cookie stealing on the mind. The more firms like BS and MER continue to serve up super market veggie aisle nonsensical rumors intended to mislead people into buying your wrap covering the severe manic nervous breakdown that's really a daily challenge ('fiiiiiine, and you ? ') the more people will turn and go down the cereal aisle if they spot you at the store, happily avoiding anything to do with you... MER needs to study BS's case from Friday to Monday - all the way down to $8 a share. Here I see predictions above, but you know ? Schwartz of Bear Stearns had these grandiouse delusions too - served them up over the larger media outlets, and PROBABLY talked on an encrypted phone to off shore to dump anything he had ! heh.... Maybe it's all simply a matter of HOW MER wants to fall ? By doing it BS style ? you lie, then it's a quick fall, and you have a window to get out. Or, you go out and tell everyone on christmas eve day that there isn't enough money in the bank to cover all the withdrawls (BS it was not enough money to cover the options), and sure, you're bank is toast, but at least what ? you maintained integrity by telling the truth ? Tough call for Merrill - they either lie and say - all is fine, nothing to see here, keep moving, OR they say - okay okay - HERE is why we were SO far off in Q2 and Q3- and here is why you should trust us on our NEXT predictions - ha ha ha oh well- bigger question - how to stop gap any domino effect losses EITHER way MER goes. I wager MER relocates to Dubai ! jk

August 5, 2008 at 7:12 pm

DrDetroit

Upon reading: "When Merrill announced its second quarter results, Thain said: “Right now we believe we are in a very comfortable spot in terms of our capital.” Investors who piled into the shares at that time at $31, thinking the worst was over might feel justifiably feel blindsided." This reminded me of Bear Stearns - watching Scwartz from his palm beach home on Friday speaking with confidence "It's all speculation, we're fine". I do think these financial giants certainly don't want to go around getting hired help to clean the deck if or when they know the ship is going down. "Come get paid 5x normal wages, washing the deck of a sinking ship", nuh uh, no stock holder will buy into that, in fact, they'd panic sell I bet. So, JUST guessing, that MER said in 2nd quarter they were fine because they didn't want to go down in the third quarter from stock price meltdown due to TRUE rumors about their expected third quarter. Gee, people get point on MW for predicting right the day or week or months trends and stock directions, what do these corporations lose when they put forth either misleading information or incompetent information ? I really liked the statement on Thain from this article: "Be careful of these statements, as well as anything said in the future. " Somewhere we've accepted that through political correctness or SOMETHING that people never ever lie, nor would they - my gosh ! a lie ! never ! These executives in politics and finance are beyond being human to lie- heh, uh oh, maybe the beyond human part is there if you can honestly sit there in Palm Beach on a Friday and say 'we're in great shape, it's all speculation', then on Sunday have Bernanke over for coffee to sort out your BS bailout [appropriate acronym perhaps]. Now, the problem is - what do you do when you can't rely on the corporation itself to reflect it's true situation ? Such as we see here with MER in Q2 being WAY off, then Q3 surprise surprise surprise, and no doubt Q4. And yet, all is well ? This all makes me think of a scenario that just popped in my head - how to carefully evacuate a crowded theater safely I guess. Enron just stole, lied and then sought to destroy the evidence. I think the next step is to see MER explain why it's been unable to be relied upon for accurate assessment of it's internal affairs. You know ? I would say if someone in a relationship lied like this ? OR unintentfully was simply unrealiable as to analytic skills in promoting the standings on the family budget ? Sheesh, is this someone YOU'D invest in as a stock holder ? heck no. Maybe it goes like this, MER can say to the stock holders, okay okay, we'll release our losses, but if you run, we understand this, just don't run too far ? Thanks for another leading article. I do say, I get more ground zero insights and get a sense that Liz MacDonald is more interested in truth and justice than the SEC. I thought of a job MacDonald could go to - start a watchdog/investigative:auditing firm. First, maybe some ingress on new legislation that holds corporations accountable if they're WRONG TO their advantage in their internal review press statements, but then ? MacDonald could charge the SEC for her research and work ! I do say, people say drilling in the US, or off shore would only produce oil taking ten years to get to, that would last months or weeks and somehow THAT would influence oil futures ? I say no, that's ludicrous, but if you want to influence futures confidence in general, I bet putting Liz MacDonald in as head of SEC ? My god, you would KNOW - things are on track again and confidence would be restored considerably on wall street. It's amazing what happens when people lose confidence in their laws as well as with their economic future, no anti-depressant from Eli-Lilly will fix those woes, and they are real, oh what the heck, maybe it's not that I'm being lied to, I know, I'll try Abilify ! lol - UGH! I bring this up in that MacDonald continues to play air traffic controller as well as lawyer and judge in this complicated market place, and hopefully more people follow in her steps.

August 5, 2008 at 7:00 pm

about this blog

  • Elizabeth MacDonald is the stocks editor for Fox Business Network. She is recognized as one of the top prize-winning business journalists in the country, and has received 14 awards, including the top prize in business journalism, the Gerald Loeb Award for Distinguished Business Journalism, and the Newswomen's Club of New York Front Page Award for Excellence in Investigative Journalism.

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