July 2008

Merrill Lynch has already laid off more than 5,200 people and raised about $15 bn as it struggles under massive writedowns never before seen in the history of this iconic Wall Street firm. Some $4bn to $6 bn in more writedowns are expected when Merrill announces its latest results after the markets close on July 17. Expect an announcement of a capital raise in the form of an asset sale when its ... read more

With gas prices possibly careening toward $7 a gallon, with plans afoot to have cars drive and airplanes fly on hooch, with the Central Bank of Oil, Saudi Arabia, pumping more sour than sweet crude (striking fear that it really may be running out), oil speculators are in the bulls' eye in this tumultuous political season, when the haymaker of inflation has chopped through family budgets, when the ... read more

Before I get to the thunder bolts being thrown at oil speculators from Mount Washington--some of it a needed attempt at more transparency in oil trading--there's more lazy thinking on the oil supply and demand front that ignores the bigger, macroeconomic factors at play. Don't let the facts get in the way of the narrative here, the thinking goes, don't let the truth ruin a polluted stream of ... read more

Americans now face sticker shock at the gas pump, as the average cost of gasoline veers towards $5 per gallon. And that has oil speculators in the futures market now in the regulators' bulls' eye, as the price of crude has about doubled in a year. The spike has effectively vaporized the $140 bn in fiscal stimulus checks now in the mail. Ignored here are some basic supply and demand facts. ... read more

More on the oil speculators in later blogs, I need to report the following to you first. Michael Masters, principal and founder of the hedge fund firm Masters Capital Management LLC, achieved near rock star status after his recent testimony before Congress about the impact of oil speculators on oil prices. The hedge fund manager said speculators are largely responsible for jacking up crude ... read more