Emac's Stock Watch | Fox Business
  • July 24, 2008 10:24 AM EDT by Elizabeth MacDonald

    Why You Should be Worried About the Rescue of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac

    "In this present crisis, government is not the solution to our problem, government is the problem... It is no coincidence that our present troubles parallel and are proportionate to the intervention and intrusion in our lives that result from unnecessary and excessive growth of government." -- Ronald Reagan, Inaugural Address, January 20, 1981

    The moves by the government to calm the waters over the perilous health of Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE), the mortgage finance giants, have had a temporary Xanax effect on the markets, similar to the Federal Reserve's shotgun marriage between JPMorgan Chase and Bear Stearns. This, despite the fact that the moves have kicked into high gear the haymaker of inflation now coming a cropper through family budgets.

    What puts me near to having a stroke is when Congress thinks it can whip a fast ball by Americans by saying the moves to bolster Fannie and Freddie will cost $25 bn, in order to sell the $300 bn housing bailout bill.

    The $25 bn number is a fake number, the cost will be dramatically higher. And it's not just because the government's estimate of the cost to taxpayers for the S&L crisis rose from an initial $50 bn to more than $124.6 bn (not inflation adjusted). Read to the bottom to find out why.

    The Congressional Budget Office spitballed this one and came up with a best guesstimate based on its averaging out of what it thought the losses might be. The $25 bn tossup represents an average of the odds of no government money spent whatsoever (weighted at better than 50-50 odds, who is the fantabulist who cooked those odds up?), what the CBO believes is the smaller odds of spending in excess of $25 bn and then in excess of $100 bn (pegged at a rosy 5% probability).

    More importantly, the $25 bn arises despite the fact that the Congress just this week sent in the Eliot Nesses from the Federal Reserve and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency to go find out what the heck is really sitting on Fannie and Freddie's books, as it clearly doesn't believe the management at these two levered up examples of crony capitalism.

    And don't forget the history here, CBO's estimates on the annual cost of tax code legislative changes (federal tax revenues gained or lost) are often way off by $150 bn or more.

    But here's what should concern you.

    Instead of reining in their colossal, outsized portfolios which has caused such danger to taxpayers, the legislation went in the opposite direction. It would increase the statutory limit on the national debt by $800 bn, to $10.6 tn, as the two would now get to buy and back jumbo loans worth $625,000.

    However, the House bill doesn't force Fannie and Freddie to wipe out, or even cut, their dividends to investors in the event they draw down on the government's line of credit, a pipeline into the Treasury worth $2.25 bn each, now expanded and open for the next year and a half. Treasury gets to make that call. Also, the two can use the securities they mint on their own to use as collateral when borrowing at a cheap $2.5% at the Federal Reserve discount window.

    And nowhere to be found is any talk of capping the top execs' pay at Fannie and Freddie. Last year, Freddie's chief exec Richard Syron got paid about $19.8 mn even though shares in his company lost half their value. Fannie's top gun Daniel Mudd got paid $12.2 mn in compensation, (with a $2.2 mn bonus).

    I don't know where to begin with the stink bombs, potholes and steam pipes bursting in these two reckless publicly traded companies, which have a total $5.3 tn book of business and another $3.3 tn off balance sheet. Why taxpayers now must now be forced to own a piece of these publicly traded disasters, who exhibit zero fiduciary responsibility, is beyond me.

    The two have much higher leverage ratios than banks or hedge funds, but lower borrowing costs due to their implicit government backing, capital cushions they whittled down after they gunned their lobbying engines on Capitol Hill, showering elected officials with money.

    Here's a list--notice none of these issues are addressed in the housing bailout bill:

    *Both have a total of a microscopic--did you see it, did you catch it?--$54bn in net worth, generally assets minus liabilities (don't listen to the $81 bn figure tossed around for their total capital, that's a pro forma fake number that doesn't include certain losses).

    *Teetering atop that razor thin wedge is a pyramid of debt.

    *One stink bomb is the total of $260 bn in securitized assets backed by subprime and Alt-A loans, loans which sit in between subprime and prime. Those sums dwarf their capital positions.

    *Freddie has $156.8 bn in level three assets, those illiquid securities it can't get a pricetag on because no one wants them now. Remember, under US accounting rules, it gets to assign its own values to these assets, they could be worth more, they could be worth less.

    *Fannie has $56.1 bn in level three assets, or about a seventh of its fair valued assets.  

    *Fannie and Freddie have combined debts of $1.59 tn, borrowings they made merely to operate their businesses. Again, that's against just $54 bn in total net worth. Their guaranteed liabilities were 29 times their net worth at the end of the first quarter.

    *They each have $2.25 bn pipelines into the Treasury, which the government now wants to expand. Forty years ago, when they went public, Fannie had debt of about $15 bn. Do the math against Fannie's $804 bn in liabilities today, and the pipelines should be about $120 bn each.

    Still believe that $25 bn figure Congress is selling you?

    The right thing to do would be to pull the sheet over the two, put them in receivership and restructure their businesses. Restrain their portfolios, the two need statutory limits on their portfolios, put the guardrails up and do it now.

    We're not talking bankruptcy here, calm down banks and central bankers who hold Fannie and Freddie debt overseas, we're talking about a restructuring that protects everyone, let the portfolios run off, or else you, foreigners, will be importing our inflation.

    Congress must insist on showing a "profit" from this misadventure, beyond the equity you and I will now hold in these two via the government's moves (taxpayer-owned stakes which are subordinated to other investors, but that's for another day).

    End note: Isn't it interesting that Fannie and Freddie went public after former US president Lyndon Johnson, worried about the effect of the Vietnam War on the federal budget, moved both off of the government's books, in an off-balance sheet, adumbrated move presaging Enron? 

    Remember for the first time in the late ‘60s, Congress changed the rules to let it get its mitts on taxpayer's our Social Security funds, which it since spent on pork to buy votes.

    The ‘60s were when all fiscal and monetary responsibility started to fly into a ditch, and when taxpayers were loaded into the backseat of Congress's spaceship pointed directly at the center of the sun.

    Read Reagan's quote again at the beginning of this blog--it's back to the future time.  

L.Kurt Engelhart

Why is it that some people can only think about government as "them?" This kind of thinking is avoidance of responsibility. Government is, or should be, about "us." If "we" do something wrong, we must accept responsibility rather than trying to pin it on some partisan scapegoat. In the case of the housing crisis, the behavior of the present administration can be seen as a large contributor. Accepting responsibility means removing these incompetent or criminal persons from office and learning from the mistake that put them there. We cannot help making mistakes, but we should insure these mistakes are not intentional.

July 24, 2008 at 11:47 am

James Mason

You da man there girlfriend! Good job on distilling the angel's breath from the grog. I'm still choking on the slag math discharged from our blessed yet freely illiterate press and media outlets. If ye want to float bravo sierra past a really thick electorate, merely put some frosting upon that turd. Again, top job there mate, Keep kicking ass and taking names. James.

July 24, 2008 at 11:47 am

tara

The thing that makes me the madest about this situation is so many people working for these companys made so much money off of the backs of the suckers who thought they could make money from the houses they bought. Why dont the people who were making the most money from this help us pay down some of these loans?? I sure wish I could run my buisness and be backed by the government. opps Im sorry I dont think I did that right can I please have a bunch of money someone else has to pay back for me!!!

July 24, 2008 at 11:48 am

Greedom

I actually re-read MacDonalds articles usually. Missed this line: "The ‘60s were when all fiscal and monetary responsibility started to fly into a ditch, and when taxpayers were loaded into the backseat of Congress’s spaceship pointed directly at the center of the sun." Well put. I had to look up the word adumbrated though ! Thanks for the time on this article, sure that's what you're paid for - but I think Macdonald would still be bringing constructive criticism in attempts to better this world - or at least prevent it from getting worse ! Point here is, unless I'm missing something Ms. MacDonald, you really seem to be a part of your work, and seem to really snjoy it.

July 24, 2008 at 11:49 am

Don Knepler

Send FEMA in to fix the two organizations. By the time the head hondos for the three F's get it together, it will be a 2012 campaign issue and one of the Clinton Bush talking points. Ronald Reagan signed both my college diploma and my CPA certificate, hence, similar thoughts, government fixes are fatally flawed.

July 24, 2008 at 11:49 am

Ken Kesler

Your article is right on point. My question is "Who will bail the taxpayers out? Welcome to the United Socialists of America. Ken Kesler

July 24, 2008 at 11:49 am

Al Budynski

Imagine a mafia boss saying to you, "In this present crisis, the mafia is not the solution to your problem, mafia is the problem… It is no coincidence that your present troubles parallel and are proportionate to the intervention and intrusion in your life that result from unnecessary and excessive growth of the mafia. Now, here's what I'm prepared to do to keep you safe from the mafia..." That's how all extortion speeches start and Reagan started this whole extortion racket that the government has foisted on the tax payer. Notice how both the government budget and debt (essentially off budget government spending) exploded under Reagan. That's not fixing the problem. Deregulation was a farce. There was no reduction in regulation, it was simply re-written to favor corporate interests. Blaming the government for your problems is like blaming fire for burning down your house while ignoring the arsonist who started it.

July 24, 2008 at 11:49 am

Roger

The current Fed lost its independence by injecting its own money into the current crisis. Actually, it is not its own money; Fed injected the public money and put all of us at risk. In the past, Fed intervened market by changing policies and interest rates. Economy has its own way to cycle ups and downs. It is foolish to put so much money at risk to "prevent" economy to normally complete its cycles. Respect the nature is important; do not just think human is in complete control. The Fed current effort will not prevent a recession; and actually in contrary, it will make this recession deeper and longer. Mr. Paulson has its own personal interst. Remember he came from the Wall Street. The federal government and the Wall Street elites have an incentive of under-reporting inflation. In a slow economy, the portion of under-reported inflation will suddenly become part of the GDP growth (a virtually a name game). Also, by under-reporting inflation, federal government can avoid lots of payment on society security payment. So, keeping inflation high and not reporting it can really help corporations look good on balance sheet and help government of not paying what it should pay to genral public. Democracy has many benefits. But, like everything on the earth, democracy has its own drawbacks. One significant drawbacks of democracy is that elected officials have too short time span in making public policies—most public officials are only thinking about next term election and all the effort is devoted to quickly address the current problems if they can or delay them to the next terms; no one is willing to take the hit by make a public policy that require some sacrifice of the current generation but can benefit generations to come. CEOs of publicly traded companies are only thinking about profit of next quarter or next year. Who is supposed to think beyond 10-year or 20-year horizon? This is the fundamental problem of democracy. This drawback is not correctable through the cycle of democracy itself. Mr. Paulson is exactly doing this. He always by asking a small piece to track the other party in to the game. Later, when situation worsens, the other party finds it is not possible of not continuing to get involved. The "unlikely for US government to get involved" and "for the next 18 months only", and "total liability is $25B" are claims not way to adjust. Mr. Paulson can always come back to the table saying: "...after our last decision, situation has worsened and we need more help." It is silly to see those Wall Elite and top government officials use this phrase so often; making it like that they have nothing to do with it. Please remember, they should be held accountable if things getting worse when we go down the route they advocated for us. Look back to history, whether it is a Roam empire or dynasties in China, on average they lasted about 300-400 years: 100 years to grow; 100 years to enjoy prosperity; and 100 years to perish. I am not surprised that if US is already entered the declining phase. No matter how good a system is, just like no matter how healthy a person is, it will come to an end and another new cycle will begin. Fed should not act as financial "God". Fed and treasure secretary needs to look beyond the political horizon, for the benefit of the society and generations to come.

July 24, 2008 at 11:50 am

Carola Von Hoffmannstahl-Solomonoff

And Bush's resolve not to sign off on the "rescue" unless the CDBG handout to non-profits was removed, folded like a liar's loan.

July 24, 2008 at 11:50 am

Cayetano

Maybe the Fed initiative to help Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac help our present economic situation with tax payer's money. Then what about the small businesses who are affected by this down turn. We have seen the Fed lowering the rate to the bank to 2%, but the bank is not responding to consumers needs for lower rate for those who are still qualified. If this economy lingers longer, maybe the people who are now qualified may not be later. CPI & unemployment is on the way up, the dollar is being devalued, and the Fed as it seems ignoring us consumer. The help to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac would be good, but please extend those low rate access to consumers.

July 24, 2008 at 11:55 am

don smith

1972, my initial year as a residential real estate appraiser. Oh how simple, competent and professional mortgage lending was. Local, in house, prudent and personal. The only mortgage broker was SWD for FHA/VA. As the great Coach Vince Lombardi said " its a simple game...block, tackle and hold on to the football" Well that is what we need to go back to in mortgage lending. OWNER OCCUPIED, 25-28% rule, local lending via FDIC financial institutions, elimate mortgage broker/wholesaler... the basics always have and always will work for a healthy business environment. A home is a place for family, friends and fond memories. Not a cash machine for fly by nite mortgage brokers and Wall St. hedge funds. Our neighborhoods are being devestated and we need to revise mortgage lending which will heal or neighborhoods around the USA!

July 24, 2008 at 11:56 am

Cayetano

Maybe the Fed initiative to help Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac help our present economic situation with tax payer's money. Then what about the small businesses who are affected by this down turn. We have seen the Fed lowering the rate to the bank to 2%, but the bank is not responding to consumers needs for lower rate for those who are still qualified. If this economy lingers longer, maybe the people who are now qualified may not be later. The help to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac would be good, but please extend those low rate access to consumers.

July 24, 2008 at 11:57 am

Ben

It's getting really serious if Fannie & Freddie have to be bailed out. It just tells me that the government doesn't have a clue whatsoever to save this moribund economy. I just cannot believe this is happening in the US with all the brightest minds and B-Schools still unable to figure out how to fix it. Either I am dreaming or it's a conspiracy. You guys tell me!

July 24, 2008 at 11:57 am

James

So I can't say I totally get this (I took a macro econ class but that was a long time ago). Here's what I think you're saying to me: DEBTDEBTDEBTDEBTDEBTDEBTDEBTDEBTDEBT DEBTDEBTDEBTDEBTDEBTDEBTDEBT DEBTDEBTDEBTDEBTDEBT DEBTDEBTDEBTDEBT DEBTDEBT DEBT $

July 24, 2008 at 11:58 am

Max Gersenson

Dear Elizabeth McDonald...the article you wrote exposing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac does concern me...but I am lost in the relationships between the billions and trillions of dollars and how the government is putting the screws to the people with their complex wheeling and dealing. IN SIMPLE EVERYDAY LANGUAGE (omitting the cutesy talk) please distill the facts to the point where it is clear to me and the readers just how the government is going to screw us to the financial wall and then rip us off. I am,(sad to say) unable to connect the dots and fight the system of connivers in our government.

July 24, 2008 at 12:00 pm

Misha

Reagan--our hero--is the one who started the multi-trillion-dollar Debt Monster on its way. Thanks RR!

July 24, 2008 at 12:00 pm

Todd Hagans

I am also against the government stepping in on this Fannie, Freddie mess. Why should I and others who are responsible mortgage payers bail out the ones who sucked all the equity out of there homes, or bought a home out of their finacial means. We tax payers are the ones that will pay for this not the gov. . The government is totally out of control with spending. People need to wake up before they have total control of our lives.

July 24, 2008 at 12:07 pm

Mr J Dean Birch

But Ms McDonald, what puts me near to having a stroke is a President who would appoint the CEO of an investment bank to Treasury Secretary of the US, and a student of Alan Greenspan,to head the Federal Reserve. Also Ms McDonald I find it more than just a coincidence that we have another 2 term Republican President, and another banking/financial scandal. I dont use that term loosely either.

July 24, 2008 at 12:09 pm

Feudi Pandola

President Bush said yesterday that "Wall Street got drunk" in explaining the current credit crunch. The MBA Cowboys who dreamed up the whole notion of Fannie Mae, Freddie MAC, and Sallie Mae have to answer for this mess. The CEO's for two of these companies left or were ready to leave with tens of millions in stock options, all paid on the backs of the borrowers and stockholders. The article implies that this mess was caused by the feds but the truth is that the mess was caused by a lack of regulation, nor too much regulation. Loans made with no income verification are just plain bad business and stupid. Common sense, basic financial management practices would have prevented this situation. Lastly, when I went to school, there was no such thing as an "off balance sheet" transaction. The AICPA should ban the whole concept of such a thing.

July 24, 2008 at 12:09 pm

helena

excellent article !

July 24, 2008 at 12:09 pm

Hal Smith

Two words Ron Paul!

July 24, 2008 at 12:11 pm

Brad Fleming

Mrs. MacDonald, you can't possibly pen an article like this without being a Ron Paul advocate. I guess the references to President Reagan go down a little bit easier considering the average Fox informed/brainwashed crowd. Nevertheless, I enjoyed the article, keep up the honest reporting.

July 24, 2008 at 12:12 pm

BA

Elizabeth MacDonald did a wonderful job of explaining the situation to her readers. As soon as I read the projected values of debt and government funding I thought it had to be a joke considering the value of assets and liabilites at the companies. well written, thanks for sheding light on the situation

July 24, 2008 at 12:15 pm

mrgreenlust

In case you have forgotten, Reagan ran up the national debt and spent tens of billions on lasers in space, an idea that went nowhere and had zero trickle down in technology because it was all just a big expensive pipe dream. Stop crying and buy some FNM stock.

July 24, 2008 at 12:16 pm

Ray Stolp

It is a real pleasure to read something that tells the truth, insyead of the glossy faace put on this situation by the bloated congress. Thank you and keep up the good work.

July 24, 2008 at 12:18 pm

about this blog

  • Elizabeth MacDonald is the stocks editor for Fox Business Network. She is recognized as one of the top prize-winning business journalists in the country, and has received 14 awards, including the top prize in business journalism, the Gerald Loeb Award for Distinguished Business Journalism, and the Newswomen's Club of New York Front Page Award for Excellence in Investigative Journalism.

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