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  • July 2, 2008 09:41 AM EDT by Elizabeth MacDonald

    Part Three: The Oil Speculator Witch Hunt

    Before I get to the thunder bolts being thrown at oil speculators from Mount Washington--some of it a needed attempt at more transparency in oil trading--there's more lazy thinking on the oil supply and demand front that ignores the bigger, macroeconomic factors at play.

    Don't let the facts get in the way of the narrative here, the thinking goes, don't let the truth ruin a polluted stream of oil consciousness. I find the oil witch hunters a tedious, self-serving, unreflective and rather boring crowd. They are habitually self deceiving, and listening to their orgy of self-righteousness, I can feel my brains running out of my ears.

    They tend to lead with their muscle and not with their minds, because it's oh so much easier to get out the rakes and torches. Especially elected officials who find it easier to pass the blame buck in this political season, with scapegoats now in season, rather than make the tough legislative decisions to make energy affordable for cash-strapped American taxpayers hit with soaring costs for health care, college tuition, you name it.

    Thinking about their daily struggle, I find myself constantly grinding my teeth into Tic Tacs on their behalf.

    Now you'll hear an attempt at a reasonable argument from the witch hunt theorists who say oil speculators are solely to blame for oil price spikes--which on closer look is just lazy spitballing that ignores what the pros are saying.

    Trust me, I think oil speculators are partly to blame, but they are part of a much larger picture. I've said so repeatedly on camera and in prior blogs, based on my reporting--no one can say definitively and with any veracity how much oil prices have risen due to oil speculators. You'll see estimates that are all over the map.

    However, watch what the Paris-based International Energy Agency, the big oil industry think tank, just said about oil speculators, that there is "little evidence" that large investment flows into the oil futures market have sparked an imbalance between supply and demand and led to the surge in oil prices.

    Or that the IEA specifically said that "money flows and speculation can have a day-to-day influence on prices, but it is not one that can be sustained for any length of time without a market imbalance being apparent," adding in its report that "the economy is impacted by fluctuations in spot oil prices, not futures prices."

    Or that the IEA says demand is to blame as demand for oil is rising, as it is still forecasting global consumption of oil products will increase 1.6% a year on average through 2013, largely due to demand from non-OECD countries, including China and India.

    Or that the agency also says because oil production is slowing worldwide, that caused it to cut its outlook on global oil supply levels in production from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries members and non-OPEC nations.  The IEA also said that poor supply performance since 2004, combined with strong demand from the developing world, started to push prices higher.

    Despite those facts, you'll hear from the oil speculator witch hunt crowd that oil price spikes are not a supply and demand issue, because US gasoline reserves are at their highest levels since the early 1990s, laudable since the nation's refineries like Valero (VLO) have been dialing back on their gas production as their margins have declined.

    You'll hear too from the oil speculator witch hunt crowd that there is no supply problem because average gasoline reserves on hand have risen since this past October, and the US oil stockpiles in this country have gone up nearly every week this year.

    To wit, the argument is that because there's more stockpiling going on, there's no shortage of gasoline or oil in the U.S. today, because we have near-record reserves on hand.

    You have just witnessed an advanced case of severe rectal cranial inversion.     

    What's missing in this argument? The reason why countries stockpile and set up reserves to begin with: because countries are doing so in the face of rising demand or supply shocks. 

    Just as a publicly traded company books increasing cookie jar reserves to take care of future losses, (witness the financials now), so, too, do countries stockpile to protect against future rising costs and/or losses in oil supplies. Or in the face of growing demand. As China is now doing with its offline stockpiling so it won't face embarrassing shortages during the summer Olympics in Beijing.

    And as reserves rise, it's the quality of the oil increasingly coming on-stream that has also helped oil prices go ballistic. There is a glut of sour crude, sulphurous grades that is way more expensive to refine than the sweeter crudes, now becoming increasingly rare, say oil traders and oil statisticians at the IEA.

    Oil prices go up after Nigerian oil attacks because Nigeria pumps out light sweet crude that's cheaper to refine, versus the sour grades swamping the markets, according to sources. The Sauds pumping more sour crude--when it has historically pumped sweet--is not a good sign for the markets. And has been taken as a negative, which is why oil futures have risen.

    You can talk all you want about how gas reserves are at their highest levels. But if all the world has to refine is an increasing amount of sour crude, then listen to the oil pros and oil majors who say that going forward, you can expect a squeeze on those reserves. Which is why oil prices are going up.

    "Refiners are paying record premiums for the high-quality crude oil they use to produce diesel and petrol, a sign of strong demand in the physical oil market that calls into question claims that soaring oil prices are being driven by speculators," the Financial Times reports.

    It's a big reason why Valero Energy may sell one-third of its refinery operations due to poor margins in recent months.  

    You'll also hear arguments from the Cotton Mathers in the oil-speculators-are-solely-to-blame crowd that this is not a demand issue, because demand in the US is flat-lining or expected to go down due to higher gas prices. The US is the world's largest oil consumer with 20.7 mn barrels of oil consumed in the country daily (a quarter of the world's consumption).

    Now it's true that the US government's energy officials now expect US demand will be lower than had previously forecast due to the recent gas price surge. The IEA has predicted that global oil product demand in 2008 would grow by 0.9% or a teensy 800,000 barrels a day, with predictions that US demand would drop up to 2.5% this year, down to 20.3 mn barrels daily.

    But yes and let's sit on our couches with our remotes and Cheez Doodles (*(I love cheese doodles, the hard kind) and never go outside our own front door to see what else is going on in the world.

    It's expected that 1.8 bn new entrants will join the middle class next 12 years by 2010. The world's middle class will grow to a staggering 52% of total world population, up from 30% now. That means increasing demand for gasoline.

    Explosive middle class growth in formerly poor countries, such as China, Russia and the Middle East means they will consume more crude oil than the U.S., burning 20.67 mn barrels a day this year, an increase of 4.4%, according to the International Energy Agency in Paris.

    Economic growth of more than 8% in China and India, coupled with increasing car ownership among the countries' combined populations of 2.45 bn people, will more than compensate for falling U.S. demand, the IEA says. Oil use worldwide will increase 2% this year because of growth in emerging markets, the Paris-based IEA says.

    China has a tiny 15 passenger cars for every 1,000 people--meaning it's Japan circa 1963, when Japan had 13 cars per 1,000.

    China has 1.6 bn people. Which is why the US automakers are saving themselves by piling into the Middle Kingdom. Which means gas consumption will soar in this country for decades to come.  

    Demand is rising everywhere. Last year Mideast's six largest petroleum exporters, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Iran, Kuwait Iraq and Qatar curbed output by 544,000 barrels a day. At the same time their domestic demand increased by 318,000 a day.

    You'll also hear arguments from the Pierre de Lancres of the oil speculator witch hunt crowd, that oil production is still moving apace, with some suggesting oil production is expected to increase by 3.3% in the second quarter, and by as much as 4.1% by the third quarter.

    The game here is this: throw a dart at stats pasted to a barn door, with the game's rules saying you get 1,546,789 tosses to hit the stat you like to suit your argument.

    Officials at OPEC and the IEA say oil production is decreasing in 54 of the world's top 60 oil producing nations, including the US which produces 5 mn barrels a day, down fm 11 mn in 1970. The overall amount of oil discovered has been falling for 40 years. Sadad al Husseini a former top executive at the state-owned oil company Saudi Aramco, says Saudi production already hit a peak and will begin dropping in 15 years or less.

    I'm exhausted, there are more oil production stats I can give you, but I am getting bored.

    Ok I'll go on.

    You'll also see the argument from the witch hunters that all is well, that the U.S. daily buffer for oil production against demand, which was a paltry 1.5 million barrels as recently as 2005, is now up to 3 mn barrels in excess capacity today.

    What's missing here? A worldwide outlook-enough with the US-centric focus here. You need to compare the worldwide spare cushion to overall daily demand, and that comparison is terrifying.

    The world's spare capacity, the oil cushion as it were, has dwindled to just over 2 mn barrels per day with global demand at 86 mn barrels a day. That's way down, by more than half, from 5 mn nine years ago vs 76 mn barrels consumed daily, says the U.S. Energy Information Administration. And again much of today's surplus is sour crude, high in sulphur, which refiners loathe.

    Don't forget that the oil price spike story is a weak dollar story too.

    David T. King, a former chief of the New York Federal Reserve's Industrial Economies Division, noted on the editorial page of the Wall Street Journal earlier this year, when oil prices were at around $120, that last August the dollar price of oil was $70. King points out that the current spike in oil and other commodity prices coincides almost exactly with the Fed's decision to turn on the monetary spigots to save Wall Street.

    The day that the barrel price of oil in dollars was exactly the same as in Euros was in 2002, when both were about 25, King notes. Since then oil has risen by 50 Euros in the past five and a half years. It now stands at 75 Euros, triple what it was then.

    But check this out: in the US, the price is over $120, about five times what it was then, King says. He says that the collapse of the dollar exchange rate explains at least half of the increase in the pump price of gas over the past five years.

    The falling value of the dollar has caused the price of gasoline to soar. Gee that was hard to figure out wasn't it?

    I've said at the outset that speculators are adding to the price spikes, we just don't know by how much. The hope is that more sunlight in their trades will help market watchdogs and regulators stop the torquing that goes on, especially when a hedge fund like Amaranth Advisers or a miscreant firm like Enron want to game the system.

    Really?

    NEXT UP: The regulatory blow torch aimed at oil speculators.

    FOOTNOTE: After this story was published, the IEA released a report stating that supplies may not keep up with demand, noting that the growth in global spare capacity will peak at about 2.5 mn barrels daily in 2010, dropping to--watch out--less than a million a day for the ensuing three years. Crude oil prices hit a record in trading after hours on the report. Already the haymaker of inflation has come a cropper, due to oil price spikes.

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Greedom

Sheesh you people need to fix this: you can't just WRITE what you want and I'm NOT writing anything obscene or with mal-intent here last part: then he'll serve up some nationalism is over speech. Even if Bush doesn't serve up this speech - it's coming. Most of the products in MY house are from China And "Is Six Flags American" What IS this crapola ? what IS American ? the workers ? what of the nearing 20 million mexicans - and hats off too - I'm PRO humanity ! I have NO problem with the bottom of the statue of liberty- which - originally ? was an Muslim woman with a scarf around her -AWESOME history there. I'm torn on the bridge of ignorance - I think education is the answer to anyones salvation. I think we need to think twice on what our currency means without a nation state and what a nation state means without a currency -end part WHAT A HEADACHE even attempting to share thoughts here

July 4, 2008 at 1:25 pm

Greedom

But - I do wonder if Obama, OR McCain - EITHER ONE get in (remember Rove DESTROYED McCain, in Rove - Bush's Brain the movie ? (or book) the author points out Rove went about to all the christian fundamentalists and made SURE they knew he had a 'black' daughter by a 'black' prostitute- and you know ? his daughter was adopted from an orphanage Mother Theresa ran - Rove attempted to DESTROY McCain - Rove is a total slime ball - and here he's ON McCain's campaign ? Either way- if either one get in ? I bet full circle - Paulson's denial on the dollar against what the rest of the world says- and Bernanke's inability to raise rates risking investment banks falling because of risk from CountryWide fallout induced by people signing up for loans as if the world was ending -because Fox told them it was - OR risk destroying the lower class if he doesn't raise rates ? I bet Bush comes out in December saying "Well, it's all changed now, and now we must face what we face"

July 4, 2008 at 1:24 pm

Greedom

sry folks - breaking this up ONE sentence in here is being filtered by Fox: I was only pro Biden - I don't have any support for any of the yayhoo's running. Least Biden seemed truly immovable as to corporate lobbying.

July 4, 2008 at 1:24 pm

Greedom

WHY is this filtering !? ? ?? What kind of company IS THIS >? I bet Obama will say "darn, I become president and they move the White house to Dubai !"

July 4, 2008 at 1:23 pm

Greedom

OH NO - my last post didn't show up as saying Your Comment is awaiting moderation. Now I don't know if it made it If the web scripting has a block on size ? then it was lost so here goes - I'm breaking it up part 1: Who knows Maybe by the time McCain or Obama get in ? The US will have realized that nationalism is dead. That the US military was USED for one last rant to promote corporate petro occupation in Irq and that the US housing / mortgage sector was looted - payoff to the Bank of America where the TWO senior architects for the War on Terror sit - Larry Di Rita - press architect and General Tommy Franks - military architect for Afghanistan and Iraq. Looted ? why ? why- Abu Dhabi can buy the US real estate sector if it wants anyway. well - 2 trillion is coming on line from Abu Dhabi to buy into the 12 trillion US real estate sector. now, ask yourself, with an estimated (I arrive at about 6 too) 6 trillion total loss/depreciation in US real estate sector ? all of a sudden 2 trillion is into 6 - 33%. I am just considering that by the time McCain OR Obama gets in - Bush comes forward to say "Look, the world is growing up, it's a global economy globalism is here" Then he announces, "Now, we'll still have nationalism in the sense of tourism, but we're moving to the Amero" heh -

July 4, 2008 at 1:13 pm

Judith Bisso

I am beginning to admire Elizabeth more and more. I wonder if Bill O'Reilly will invite her to appear on his show, in order to point out the error of her ways regarding oil specuators. Would be an interesting show. You go, Gutsy Lady.

July 4, 2008 at 10:49 am

Greedom

part 9: I blocked the Fox News channel today - the 3 yayhoos on Fox n Friends rendered uncontrollable feelings leading to vomit. I don't block Fox Business News though. Fox promotes this fear terror message as I observe. In fact ? I STILL can't help to notice the mortages that were sold and taken out as IF there would be no tomorrow all started at the same time as the message of hopelessness based on BAD intelligence data we ALL know about now - THANKS McLellan for coming forward too - others will surely follow. Intentional or NOT - and it's odd General Tommy Franks, as Rush Limbaugh likes to point out - who ran BOTH wars, Afghanistan AND Iraq - NOW sits on Board of Directors of Bank of America ? the company that stands to REAP HUNDREDS of BILLIONS of FREE MONEY resultant from the mortgage fraud inherited through CountryWide - GO FIGURE -! Intentional or not, I say it was the perfect storm - bad loans to people who HAD to have thought the world was ending to take a loan they KNOW they can't afford, nor, would have EVER been able to get on a 500k home - and live rent free for FIVE YEARS. Probably came with FREE Fox News too ! jk That'd be awesome if Bush played out a plan from his brother who looted the Savings and Loan - to loot the entire US mortgage sector - put up a prop TV station - Fox - to run the CountryWide ads and promote fear - and promote why the US MUST go to war... meanwhile - the people who take the bait loans - live in the house, BORROW against it on a no money down for 5 year plan, PAY for Fox New in cable - and in turn watch Fox using the money derived from Fox offering the CountryWide Ad. wow.

July 4, 2008 at 10:29 am

Greedom

part 8: I've observed in my BRIEF self education in economy that the world's currencies are consolidating, and JUST that we HAVE basket currencies - AND in Feb 2008 ? I see the Fed moved Special Drawing Rights over to paper, a first. What does THAT do for Gold ? when at nation state level ? it's been decided it's paper only now ? Sheesh - how many years before gold traders get wind of THAT ? or even comprehend it ! Don't get me wrong, I'm not one of those New World Order nutcases, I'm actually PRO-globalism. I think globalism solves two problems. One ? No one to attack using nuclear weapons, and two ? I figured out last month that if you remove the nation state ? or nationalism ? Terrorism just - like Josh Waitskin says of Bobby Fisher - just disappears (FINALLY spelled that word right). I've observed Terrorism is really ? a reaction to nationalism. IN that nationalism is dying and globalism is emerging, I think it's probably natural to expect terrorism to show up as a temporary blip on the radar. Come on, did ANYONE really want to - US Homeland style advising the kids 'To live in fear of terror forever' ?

July 4, 2008 at 10:27 am

Greedom

Part 7: (this seems to be working - breaking it up, it wouldn't take my post as one large post, and I orig. typed it IN this window, no '1500 char limit' or anything. Who's stealing it now ? The Sub Prime - CountryWide - and it WAS CountryWide all right - scams - with CW being the Nations largest mortgage issuer ? REALLY swindled some people AND banks out of property - loans - and yikes, let's just HOPE no one - PLEASE - let no one have taken out HELOC's on those 5 year no money down mortgages that are - thanks to Liz MacDonald bringing this to surface - NOW resetting. Are there NEW settlers in this land ? One thing for sure Abu Dhabi can just BUY 1/3 of ALL real estate in America - right now, and that's just Junior's SPENDING money. I just LOVE this admin - or WHOEVER's watch it happened on eh ? I don't even bother to blame partisan side anymore, I just question who's responsible and who had knowing ill-will- or intent to deceive. I can look past ignorance - unless I suppose it's some yayhoo flying around with nuclear weapons over my head not knowing they have them on board, or worse, someone burying spent nuclear rods thinking - no one will find em HERE Jake ! ?

July 4, 2008 at 10:27 am

Greedom

Part 4: I hope Bernanke's backup plan isn't to find a Bat Phone and summon BatMan to solve this caper. It's CLEAR the Joker and Riddler are in on THIS one. Hmm - that wasn't correlative to my fast paced education on economics regarding Bretton Woods currencies. Way I see it - consolidation - it's consolidation consolidation consolidation.

July 4, 2008 at 10:25 am

Greedom

Part 3: No more. USD is no longer as the Duke in Escape From New York (a movie) would say "I'm # ONE" (Saw it YEARS ago, noticed it's on more often now). The USD MAY have toured the world, but now ? it lives as if it IS trying to Escape From New York - it is imprisoned, and it's being held hostage too !

July 4, 2008 at 10:24 am

Greedom

In 17 parts: ONE of these lines is preventing the entire post from making it. part 1 Gee, Maybe the US should oust Paulson and Bernanke and just outsource the ECB.

July 4, 2008 at 10:23 am

Greedom

I give up this is too frustrating to use too much time is wasted on the technical side of even KNOWING if what I write makes it. forget this hire some real web developers or something - you just lost a participant that no longer can tell if what is written even is being receieved at the server. Odd - all my OTHER posts seem to make it I'll try it line by line to see if it's filtering on a key word. Would be interesting to find out what word it's filtering.

July 4, 2008 at 10:22 am

Greedom

Just posted a longer reply - site doesn't let you know if it made it Sometimes it lists posts saying 'Your comment is awaiting moderation' But I don't even see my posts with that at the bottom. To admins: Maybe you could enhance user feedback as to status of whether a post made it. I mean, sheesh, if I'm going to take time to fill out a textbox with insights, if I KNEW it was to go out the window - I'd not write it. Thankfully ? Browsers ALWAYS have Alt-Back Arrow or Alt-Forward Arrow to navigate - even IF the buttons are taken off, and the content IS still here to save. Oh Alt-Back Arrow/Forward Arrow has saved me in some windows where the navigation buttons were intentionally taken off. JUST to pass that on. and Be Aware of Prilosec - proton pump inhibitors deny muscles ability to absorb ions according to my pharmacist - and can shut a muscle down - INCLUDING the heart. I was taking 2 at a time, pharm pointed out that was beyond the dosage but that very well COULD be the constricting pains in the heart - that guess what ? STOPPED when I stopped taking that stuff. It's also only supposed to be used for 14 days. Pharmaceutical lobbyists. hey, did you know ? AMA says Acetaminophen is the #1 cause of liver failure in the US ? Another 14 day limit- and how many people follow that ? I'm sure there is someone out there going "darn it, I'll take 5 if I want, AND burn some tires while I'm at it ! It's America, and my insolence rules the world ? " Hmm- they were working on their doctorate in Organic Chem - before switching, what would THEY know eh ? Using Prilosec is like using a sledge hammer to open a peanut. That's not medical advice - or intended to be- that's just insights.

July 4, 2008 at 10:18 am

Greedom

There is Paulson, Sec. of Treasury today (or maybe they had the clip a day late) going: "This is ALL supply and then it's some demand" Claiming the US dollar is in great shape - and US markets are expanding globally like never before. My favorite part revealing his gifted ability to tell the future: "If you had asked me a couple months ago if oil would be $130 ? $140 ? I'd not have ever been able to predict it" Yet ? There is Saudi Arabia saying "No new observed demand here" US Oil Corps going "No new rise in demand here ?" What oil is Paulson talking about ? I forgot to chop off the head of my golden goose If Paulson admits he couldn't have predicted $140 an oil - and it IS ? in a few months ? what ELSE can we rely on this guy for ?

July 4, 2008 at 9:31 am

Greedom

Wow Liz MacDonald I just went to put in 'Hunt Oil' into news.google.com because of small story I heard regarding Bush and Hunt oil interested in Iraq ? Odd - this VERY page comes up as #3 on news.google.com Why ? You have Oil - and Hunt in there - interesting. heh- accidental, but I'm very interested in this Hunt story because I KNOW for a fact Secretary Treasury Paul O'Neil stated WEEKS into 2000 term with Bush - he saw a document entitled confidential with the title 'US corporate candidates for the Iraqi oil fields' and you know ? Paulson -who I TRUST - ALSO said bush went around saying 'find me a way into Iraq' so, adding 1 + 1 ? when I see a story about Bush and Hunt oil ? and sneaking past Iraqi Oil Ministry ? you BET I'm checking that out - and here is YOUR article - this very one ! as #3 under those search terms - STRANGE- STRANGE because I JUST left this page to go to that story - heh. What ARE the odds ! I keep ending up back at your forums ! heh - that's because I think you're a top class journalist and enjoy the subject matter you choose -you have an amazing track record in standing up for people- kind of like a civil rights attorney without being one, or a politician - only with integrity ! Hope your 4th is uneventful ! I say that because I find holiday's OVERBEARINGLY stressful - so I always wish people uneventful holidays. Up to age 15 - they were great ! now ? ugh! X-mas is the WORST - it's like just get it OVER with - I LOATHE the forced family gatherings - augh! oh wel...

July 3, 2008 at 2:08 pm

rw

Reuters report dated today indicates Paulson discounts the dollar as major factor on current price of oil. "The dollar has had a very small impact..." according to him

July 3, 2008 at 11:34 am

Geoff

Why did this Congress impose a $.54/gal fuel/import duty on the sugar ethanol that South America wants to sell to us?? Are they protecting the corn ethanol industry or the oil companies, or both ?? Sugar ethanol is much more viable product than corn ethanol.. Why would our own legislators enact such a tax knowing that it penalizes the consumer by causing further inflation in fuel prices and is a protectionist measure for an industry that doesn't need it ??

July 3, 2008 at 11:30 am

M.L. Bushman

You know, I just wasted an hour here on a reply to this so-called report, and now I'm wondering why I even bother. I give you credit for admitting that speculators are a "part" of the problem with oil prices, but failing marks because you can't be bothered to do more than report that "no one knows how much." Just for fun, why not be a real journalist, get down and dirty and all specific here, and tell us who exactly is doing all this speculating? Who is making all the money? Someone is, and it ain't the People getting screwed daily at the pumps, that's for sure. Why not take a look at who exactly provided the data for the "government" report yesterday, a report no one in media appeared to want to make much of a fuss about, that said inventories in the US had dropped "unexpectedly" from the week before to the tune of 100 million barrels, I believe. Again, I ask who is doing the speculating? Who is reporting the "data" to the government? Who ensures the accuracy of these so-called reports? What about the insider trading aspect? Why isn't insider trading illegal on the oil futures market? How widespread is the influence these vast amounts of money are having on our do-nothing-but-bluster Congress? The point is, even the most conservative among us are now talking a second American revolution. So, whose side will media be on then? And will we trust you?

July 3, 2008 at 8:04 am

GeneralGaoChicken

By the way people If the ECB acts like Bernanke SHOULD have - and they probably will- as they actually CARE about inflation with the Euro - the US Dollar sinks even lower as a result in relation. And - hey all you oil futures traders out there that just don't get it - and I ESPECIALLY mean you yayhoo's who say it's peopel placing their money in oil because it's 'safer' or 'more potential to profit' you might as well continue your delusion today and go long ! There is sarcasm intended in there, as I am convinced oil isn't going up, it's just the meter we use to measure it is becoming more distorted. All people are doing when they 'think' they are making any money on oil futures - are postponing the wake up call they not even be lucky enough to get - alerting them their base currency is in jeopardy. All that said, I am investing my TIME, not my money (which is depreciating before my eyes anyway - ALL $150 of it !) into learning what contributes to the falling dollar, and what can be done to protect it, or what can be done to save it. My MEAGER understanding is - Bernanke raises the rates and the integrity of the dollar improves. I GATHER he doesn't because he wants people to be able to borrow at lower rates - encouraging more access to funds - perhaps to prevent another collapse. Glick's interview yesterday with that yayhoo who wants to drill drill drill- and if it were Andie McDowell in GroundHog day at the festival talking about carroling, and drill some more - comments that HAD the borrowing window existed BEFORE for Bear Stearns - they'd not have gone out of business. My reaction to that is, great- to use Liz MacDonald's term 'toxic waste' what OTHER toxic waste has the Fed already taken on, or WOULD they take for collateral if so. But my point on that in context to THIS post is - gee -If Bernanke wants to keep rates low so banks such as BS can have access to monies that are affordable as loans from the Fed ? Gee - what kind of rock and a hard place IS that ? Can't raise rates or the investment banks collapse, can't lower rates, or the dollar collapses in months rather than years - can't stay where we are at because oil and everything else pegged to the US Dollar are leading 80% of the yayhoo's on Wall Street to think oil is actually going on, and the 20% remaining that see it as the dollar condition underlying are left to probably want to get out of Dodge as well. What's next ? GE Money relocates to Latvia ? or China ? GMAC is already in China, maybe they'll move outta Horsham and get the Rosetta Stone package for Chinese ? I don't know what's in store, I LOVE challenges, and I find myself without a clue on how the US Dollar can find it's way back. I'm not even sure the US HAS the exports to take advantage of a low currency anyway as I read in the 1980's was the magic formula - lower rates, increase exports- dollar adjusts. Now ? It's just lower rates, watch commodities exploits grow by yayhoo futures traders - (I just started saying yayhoo, no clue on the etymology, feels good saying it though !), and try and figure out what the US will be exporting all the while CAFTA and the Texas corridor are clues we're going to be importing from 3rd world JUST to keep people having materialistic crapola to distract them from realizing we ARE 3rd world according to our currency sooner than later. anyone have any thoughts (with exception to my language ? )

July 3, 2008 at 6:19 am

GeneralGaoChicken

Just noticed on FBN ticker at the bottom of the screen. It's not JUST Fox Business Network - but no one shows the US Dollar on the ticker. I find it more evident how this plays into things. That is, the ratio- or standing of the US dollar to the other Bretton Woods currencies as I like to call them. More and more of the world unpegs from US currency - and yet ? as it becomes worth less in trade ? All I see is people going 'look at how much more valuable oil is, or this or that' meanwhile ? no it's just that 'look at how much worth LESS the USD is ' and yet ? Is it me ? am I missing something ? How can we just ignore this, even IF - as a comment above suggets JUST on the Euro alone it's about 30% of oil due to the USD. EVEN 30% ? I figure is 30% of $145 - hey, let's be generous, we'll call it $150 and 33% - to make for an even $100 That's ONLY $10 above $90 where oil used to live at - personally I think once you bring in the Yuan - and other Bretton Woods world currencies - it will be above 30% - and I WAGER - I BET that it places oil adjusted at $80 to $85. I could be wrong, but my intuition tells me - and the analytical reasoning side of thinking tells me I HAVE to 'correct' oil to the devalued USD. If I don't - then I'm irresponsibly reacting to oil as IF it's going up in trade (I don't trade, I'm a software engineer), and creating problems for it to burst when everyone realizes - uh oh, it WASN'T oil going up, it was the dollar falling and we ignored it.

July 3, 2008 at 6:06 am

Marco

Just like Califronia has an fake electric energy crisis a decade ago. What we were told then is there is a supply problem. What was the truth it was a manipulated market. The Dollar is down by 7% to the Euro, the price of oil has risen 48%. It is not the weskening of the dollar which only plays a small part. Demand is down in the USA which is the largest market, but we are told it China & India. Can you explain to be how India & China populace will be able to pay for $5-$10 a gallon gas and keep growing at 8% a year?

July 3, 2008 at 3:20 am

William G Stockglausner

I found this while researching. I thought Lizzy might like to see it. "The most surprising e-mail came from Chris Cook, a former director of the London Petroleum Exchange—now ICE Futures Europe. Cook wrote: "I am convinced there has been manipulation of the Brent Complex [the term that defines North Sea Brent crude prices] by ICE members for the last 10 years at least. I think it is quite likely that the Brent forward price is being kept artificially high—which does require deep pockets and accounts for the continuing barrage of Goldman [Sachs] forecasts and much of the other oil market hype that passes for news." This confirms other information I have found asserting that certain very powerful individuals have a direct and impassioned interest in seeing the price of crude rise to $150/bbl or higher.

July 3, 2008 at 2:32 am

Perry Adams

Amazing analysis using stats to make the point that futures are not holding the oil gun to our heads. No commodity increase 2 fold in such a short time unless the commodity availability is reduced drastically. I am sorry, but there's more to the uncontrolled oil price orgy than supply and demand and shutting down the Nigerian rigs for a couple days. Unfortunately, nothing is going to happen in short term to bring about a correction. In the meantime, consider the future - November and December when the retailers will see the worst holiday season since the Great Depression...Maybe we'll be buying gasoline gift cards as presents instead.

July 3, 2008 at 12:52 am

Frank J Dioguardi

Well I just read all the excuses and all the Know it alls, tell all they do not Know at all. First things first, anyone remember Silver Certificates?? Anyone know why they were taken away from us?? Figure out what the World Bank Has to do with this. Second…Has anyone actually seen the ANWR drilling area?? Not the pretty mountains and streams picture. That is not it. I am talking about the REAL drilling Oil Rich Area? I’m talking about the Coastal Plain that is right my friends 2000 acres out of 19000000. Right off of Kaktovic….Google it my friends. Not a blade of grass in this area….And no Birdies either. Yet, these lying Politicians would lie to you about this Wonderful Wildlife Area. Not the Drilling site. It is barren my friends, No Birdies, No Weasels, No Flies to protect. Only politicians protecting their pocketbooks. Millions upon Millions of Barrels of oil. And just out in the water not too far away in the Beaufort Sea….More… Trillions…enough for 2 or 3 Hundred years. Wake up….. Somebody..Wake up. Google it! This is getting Boring no one is hearing, seeing, caring.

July 2, 2008 at 11:08 pm

about this blog

  • Elizabeth MacDonald is the stocks editor for Fox Business Network. She is recognized as one of the top prize-winning business journalists in the country, and has received 14 awards, including the top prize in business journalism, the Gerald Loeb Award for Distinguished Business Journalism, and the Newswomen's Club of New York Front Page Award for Excellence in Investigative Journalism.

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